2. Industrial Countries:

Promoting Sustainable Growth in a Global Economy

Taken together, the 24 countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) represent an immense concentration of economic activity (1). In 1989, these industrialized countries had a combined gross national product (GNP) of $15 trillion and an average per capita income of $17,500 (2).

The OECD countries also place a huge demand on the natural resources of the planet and contribute a very large share of the global pollution burden. In 1989, the seven largest OECD economies consumed 43 percent of the world's production of fossil fuels, most of the world's production of metals, and a large share of other industrial materials and forest products. (See Table 2.1A.) On a per capita basis, the share of consumption of the largest OECD economies is often several times that of the world average. (See Table 2.1B.) In 1989, the OECD countries released approximately 40 percent of global sulfur oxides emissions and 54 percent of nitrogen oxides emissions--the primary sources of acid precipitation (3). They generated 68 percent of the world's industrial waste as measured by weight (4) and accounted for 38 percent of the global potential warming impact on the atmosphere from emissions of greenhouse gases (5). Yet the combined population of the OECD countries, 849 million, represents only 16 percent of the world's population (6).

A critical question is whether such patterns of production, consumption of natural resources, and pollution can be sustained in the future, as economic activity increases. The OECD countries and their industrial economies are directly responsible for many kinds of environmental stress--local, regional, and global. In addition, because they not only are heavy consumers of natural resources from developing countries but also tend to shift their pollution-intensive industries to those countries, the OECD countries also contribute indirectly to environmental stresses in developing regions.

DIMENSIONS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

As described in Chapter 1, sustainable development is economic development that does not degrade the quality of the environment or the world's natural resource base and that "sustain[s] human progress not just in a few places for a few years" (7). The evidence is that OECD countries--and the United States in particular-- do not yet meet these criteria.

Despite some improvements, air and water pollution and disposal of large quantities of waste remain serious problems in virtually all OECD countries. Industrial residues acidic materials, heavy metals, and toxic chemicals--degrade soils, damage plants, and endanger food supplies. On a per capita basis, the OECD countries are overwhelmingly the world's major polluters, both within their own borders and in their contribution to global environmental degradation. Economic disparities have increased over the past decade within most OECD countries. (See Box 2.1.) Disparities between rich and poor countries are growing ever greater. (See "Introduction to Case Studies," Figure 1.) Because rich countries tend to dominate trade relationships, they bear some responsibility for this widening gap. Virtually all OECD countries, for example, have erected trade barriers against agricultural products that deny developing countries access to OECD markets. Yet with few exceptions, OECD countries do not provide financial assistance to developing countries even at the modest levels recommended by the United Nations--.7 percent of GNP (8).

Chapter 1 also argues that the technological base of industrial societies must be transformed--replaced with cleaner, more resource-sparing technologies--if sustainable development is to occur. Development of improved industrial technologies by OECD countries and their rapid diffusion and deployment in other countries through public and private mechanisms could play a critical role in sustainable development.

The opportunities are wide-ranging. When coupled with appropriate social and institutional changes, agricultural innovations could help feed growing populations, as they have in the past, and could reduce chemical inputs to the environment. New forms of pest control, including neutralization of the tsetse fly, for example, might open large areas of Africa to food production. New energy technologies could greatly reduce pollution from fossil fuels or provide renewable sources of energy well adapted to the needs of developing countries. New vaccines and new information technologies could improve health and expand educational opportunities. Harnessed to the needs of sustainable development, technological innovation represents a hopeful investment in the future, a gift of knowledge to ensure that future generations also have opportunities to meet their needs--albeit perhaps in different ways than at present. At the same time, new policies that encourage the adoption of new technologies are badly needed.

Sustainable development in industrial countries is not a question of growth or no growth. Limits to economic growth, while they probably exist, are likely to be very elastic and determined by the state of technology and the forms of social organization. It is the kind, not the amount, of economic growth that is critical to sustainable development.

This chapter considers new policies and technologies that--within the context of OECD countries-- could reduce environmental degradation and promote more sustainable economic development. The discussion focuses on the United States because it is the largest economic unit within the OECD and, by some measures, the least efficient and most wasteful in its use of natural resources. Examples and comparisons are drawn from other OECD countries as appropriate, and the global consequences of actions by OECD countries are considered.

ENERGY RESOURCES

Energy Transitions

Until the middle of the 19th Century, humankind depended largely on renewable energy resources-- human and animal power, supplemented by wood, wind, and water power. In 1850, wood supplied more than 90 percent of energy in the United States. By the end of the century, ....................