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http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4313
Another week, another deadly natural disaster. China is struggling to dig survivors out from its worst natural disaster in three decades, and Burma's cyclone death toll continues to spiral upward due to sluggish rescue efforts. FP spoke to disaster expert Art Lerner-Lam about the world's disaster hot spots and the million-casualty earthquake that keeps him up at night.
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ALL: We're all concerned about major, disastrous earthquakes. In particular, I'm worried about disastrous earthquakes in Asia. Large cities are built near faults, and there are cities that haven't seen earthquakes in 500 years but are due. It is entirely conceivable that we could see an earthquake kill a million people this century. It would not surprise seismologists.
On a more persistent basis, I am very worried about tropical cyclones---Myanmar just being the latest example. I think there's inadequate preparation for them, especially given the technology available to track them and give people prior warning. And the thing that my climate-scientist colleagues are worried about is the long-term climate trends that are going to lead to increasing drought. Drought is so intimately linked to the success of agriculture, and we already have a world food crisis. I worry about the potential for exacerbated drought, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.
Art Lerner-Lam is director of the Center for Hazards and Risk Research at Columbia University's Earth Institute.