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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Working Group III (Response Strategies Working Group) was tasked to formulate appropriate response strategies to global climate change. This was to be done in the context of the work of Working Group I (Science) and Working Group II (Impacts), which concluded that:

We are certain emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluoro-carbons (CFCs), and nitrous oxide. These increases will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth's surface.

The longer emissions continue at present-day rates, the greater reductions would have to be for concentrations to stabilize at a given level.

The long-lived gases would require immediate reductions in emissions from human activities of over 60 percent to stabilize their concentrations at today's levels.

Based on current model results, we predict under the IPCC "Business-as-Usual" emissions of greenhouse gases, a rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century of about 0.3deg.C per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2 C to 0.5deg.C per decade), greater than that seen over the past 10,000 years; under the same scenario, we also predict an average rate of global mean sea level rise of about 6 cm per decade over the next century (with an uncertainty range of 3-10 cm per decade).

There are many uncertainties in our predictions particularly with regard to the timing, magnitude, and regional patterns of climate change.

Ecosystems affect climate, and will be affected by a changing climate and by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. Rapid changes in climate will change the composition of ecosystems; some species will benefit while others will be unable to migrate or adapt fast enough and may become extinct. Enhanced levels of carbon dioxide may increase productivity and efficiency of water use of vegetation.

In many cases, the impacts will be felt most severely in regions already under stress, mainly the developing countries.

The most vulnerable human settlements are those especially exposed to natural hazards, e.g., coastal or river flooding, severe drought, landslides, severe storms and tropical cyclones.

Any responses will have to take into account the great diversity of different countries' situations and responsibilities and the negative impacts on different countries, which consequently would require a wide variety of responses. Developing countries, for example, are at widely varying levels of development and face a broad range of different problems. They account for 75 percent of the world population and their primary resource bases differ widely. Nevertheless, they are most vulnerable to the adverse consequences of climate change because of limited access to the necessary information, infrastructure, and human and financial resources.

MAIN FINDINGS

1) Climate change is a global issue; effective responses would require a global effort that may have a considerable impact on humankind and individual societies.

2) Industrialized countries and developing countries have a common responsibility in dealing with problems arising from climate change.

3) Industrialized countries have specific responsibilities on two levels:

(a) a major part of emissions affecting the atmosphere at present originates in industrialized countries where the scope for change is greatest. Industrialized countries should adopt domestic measures to limit climate change by adapting their own economies in line with future agreements to limit emissions;

(b) to cooperate with developing countries in international action, without standing in the way of the latter's development, by contributing additional financial resources, by appropriate transfer of technology, by engaging in close cooperation concerning scientific observation, by analysis and research, and finally by means of technical cooperation geared to forestalling and managing environmental problems.

4) Emissions from developing countries are growing and may need to grow in order to meet their development requirements and thus, over time, are likely to represent an increasingly significant percentage of global emissions. Developing countries have the responsibility, within the limits feasible, to take measures to suitably adapt their economies.

5) Sustainable development requires the proper concern for environmental protection as the necessary basis for continuing economic growth. Continuing economic development will increasingly have to take into account the issue of climate change. It is imperative that the right balance between economic and environmental objectives be struck.

6) Limitation and adaptation strategies must be considered as an integrated package and should complement each other to minimize net costs. Strategies that limit greenhouse gas emissions also make it easier to adapt to climate change.

7) The potentially serious consequences of climate change on the global environment give sufficient reasons to begin by adopting response strategies that can be justified immediately even in the face of significant uncertainties.

8) A well-informed population is essential to promote awareness of the issues and provide guidance on positive practices. The social, economic, and cultural diversity of nations will require tailored approaches.

A FLEXIBLE AND PROGRESSIVE APPROACH

Greenhouse gas emissions from most sources are likely to increase significantly in the future if no response measures are taken. Although some controls have been put in place under the Montreal Protocol for CFCs and halons, emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and other gases such as several CFC substitutes will grow. Under these scenarios, it is estimated that CO2 emissions will increase from approximately 7 billion (1 billion=1000 million) tonnes carbon (BTC) in 1985 to between 11-15 BTC by 2025. Similarly, man-made methane emissions are estimated to increase from about 300 teragrams (Tg) to over 500 Tg by the year 2025. Based on these projections, Working Group I estimated that global warming of 0.3deg.C/decade could occur.

The climate scenario studies of Working Group I further suggest that control policies on emissions can indeed slow global warming, perhaps from 0.3deg.C/decade to 0.1deg.C/decade. The social, economic, and environmental costs and benefits of these control policies have not been fully assessed. It must be emphasized that implementation of measures to reduce global emissions is very difficult, as energy use, forestry, and land use patterns are primary factors in the global economy. To take maximum advantage of our increasing understanding of scientific and socio-economic aspects of the issue, a flexible and progressive approach is required. Subject to their particular circumstances, individual nations may wish to consider taking steps now to attempt to limit, stabilize, or reduce the emission of greenhouse gases resulting from human activities and prevent the destruction and improve the effectiveness of sinks. One option that governments may wish to consider is the setting of targets for CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

Because a large, projected increase in world population will be a major factor in causing the projected increase in global greenhouse gases, it is essential that global climate change strategies include strategies and measures to deal with the rate of growth of the world population.

SHORTER-TERM

The Working Group has identified measures at the national, regional, and international levels as applicable, which, while helping to tackle climate change, can yield other benefits.

LIMITATION

* Improved energy efficiency reduces emissions of carbon dioxide, the most significant greenhouse gas, while improving overall economic performance and reducing other pollutant emissions and increasing energy security.

* Use of cleaner energy sources and technologies reduces carbon dioxide emissions, while reducing other pollutant emissions that give rise to acid rain and other damaging effects.

* Improved forest management and, where feasible, expansion of forest areas as possible reservoirs of carbon.

* Phasing out of CFCs under the Montreal Protocol, thus removing some of the most powerful and long-lived greenhouse gases, while also protecting the stratospheric ozone layer.

* Agriculture, forestry, and other human activities are also responsible for substantial quantities of greenhouse gas emissions. In the short term, reductions can be achieved through improved livestock waste management, altered use and formulation of fertilizers, and other changes to agricultural land use, without affecting food security, as well as through improved management in landfill and wastewater treatment.

ADAPTATION

* Developing emergency and disaster preparedness policies and programmes.

* Assessing areas at risk from sea level rise and developing comprehensive management plans to reduce future vulnerability of populations and coastal developments and ecosystems as part of coastal zone management plans.

* Improving the efficiency of natural resource use, research on control measures for desertification and enhancing adaptability of crops to saline regimes.

LONGER-TERM

Governments should prepare for more intensive action, which is detailed in the report. To do so, they should undertake now:

* Accelerated and coordinated research programmes to reduce scientific and socioeconomic uncertainties with a view toward improving the basis for response strategies and measures.

* Development of new technologies in the fields of energy, industry, and agriculture.

* Review planning in the fields of energy, industry, transportation, urban areas, coastal zones, and resource use and management.

* Encourage beneficial behavioral and structural (e. g., transportation and housing infrastructure) changes.

* Expand the global ocean observing and monitoring systems.

It should be noted that no detailed assessments have been made as of yet of the economic costs and benefits, technological feasibility, or market potential of the underlying policy assumptions.

INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

The measures noted above require a high degree of international cooperation, with due respect for national sovereignty of states. The international negotiation on a framework convention should start as quickly as possible after the completion of the IPCC First Assessment Report. This, together with any additional protocols that might be agreed upon, would provide a firm basis for effective cooperation to act on greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to any adverse effects of climate change. The convention should, at a minimum, contain general principles and obligations. It should be framed in such a way as to gain the adherence of the largest possible number and most suitably balanced range of countries, while permitting timely action to be taken.

Key issues for negotiation will include the criteria, timing, legal form and incidence of any obligations to control the net emissions of greenhouse gases, how to address equitably the consequences for all, any institutional mechanisms that may be required, the need for research and monitoring, and in particular, the request of the developing countries for additional financial resources and for the transfer of technology on a preferential basis.

FURTHER CONSIDERATION

The issues, options, and strategies presented in this document are intended to assist policymakers and future negotiators in their respective tasks. Further consideration of the summary and the underlying reports of Working Group III should be given by every government, as they cut across different sectors in all countries. It should be noted that the scientific and technical information contained in the policymakers summary and the underlying reports of Working Group III do not necessarily represent the official views of all governments, particularly those that could not participate fully in all Working Groups.