Reproduced, with permission, from:

Conceptual Framework for Research on "Global Change"

1. Introduction

UNCED-Conference, 1992

The concern about global changes in the climate and environment, and the related consequences for mankind (which are partially still indeterminable), has steadily increased in recent years. These problems have extended beyond the level of pure technical discussions and are now the center of public and political interest. They are closely connected with social, economic, public health, transport, energy and development policy and eventually leads to the question of the conditions and requirements needed for a sustainable development. This is made clear for example by the preparations for the 2nd United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), which will be held in 1992 in Brazil. Its central subject is "Environment and Development" and it is hoped that it will generally initiate developments for a future global environment policy, and its integration into development and economic policy. This goal cannot be achieved without closer partnership and cooperation between industrial and developing nations.

Only then will it be possible to pass a climate convention as a result of this conference. The German Federal Government strongly supports the efforts to reach an obligatory agreement on how the emissions of climatically relevant gases, especially of CO2, should be restricted. Furthermore, there should be additional efforts made in the protection of forests and the diversity of species.

New Dimensions

Environmental problems first entered public discussions in a clear manner during the first UN Environment Conference at Stockholm in 1972. Steps were subsequently taken towards international coordination. One such step is the 1987 report "Our Common Future". It was written by a commission established in 1983 by the UN, and directed by Gro Harlem Brundtland; it showed the close linkage and interaction between economic development and environment. The concept of a "Sustainable Development" was formulated for the first time. The Montreal Protocol of 1987 on the protection of the ozone layer finally gave a worldwide signal for the termination of the production of the chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's).

A major insight of the last twenty years' increase in environmental research is that many locally or regionally caused environmental problems can have partly unexpected global consequences. For instance, the regionally very different emissions of CO2 sum up to a continual worldwide increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. On the other hand, global changes such as an increase in the mean temperature of the oceans lead to considerable regional consequences by processes often still not understood. In addition, both the multiple cross-links between different processes and the shifting of problems between the environmental spheres of water, soil and air are generally acknowledged as a fact. Other problems such as continously increasing amounts of waste are encountered in all countries, and thus take on a global character. These problems also include the great growth in conurbations and the related formation of areas with social problems. It has also become clear that a purely scientific or technical approach to the problems is insufficient. It needs to be complemented by a social and economic point of view. Thus new research efforts are required in order to derive not only integral approaches to solutions, but also the alternative ways of proceeding that are needed for the political decision making process.

Enquete Commission

In its three reports, the Enquete Commission of the Eleventh German Bundestag "Preventive Measure to Protect the Earth's Atmosphere" has pointed out two issues in particular: on the one hand coordinated measures need to be taken in all countries but on the other hand an overall strategy for the protection of the Earth's atmosphere is needed which connects the various measures taken in the different environmental sectors. The extensive analyses of the global situation of the environment and the concrete proposals for international agreements made by the Enquete Commission (such as the climate convention) have been acknowledged worldwide. Moreover, they have given valuable impetus to further research. The Twelfth German Bundestag has set up a further Enquete Commission on the same subject matter, which will deal primarily with the problems arising when the recommended actions are politically implemented on a national, as well as on an international scale.

2. Research / Action / Environmental politics

Current human activities have initiated processes, the consequences of which are becoming noticeable globally. The widely discussed additional greenhouse effect, for example, is caused by anthropogenic emissions of trace gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and halogen hydrocarbons such as CFC's. As a result, the radiation balance of the Earth is changed. Global changes are to be expected as the consequences of deforestation, as well as the harming of the oceans and the sensitive terrestrial ecosystems. It is now necessary to clarify these processes by problem orientated research approaches, and to estimate their consequences.

Natural Processes

Events like the eruptions of the vulcano Pinatubo, however, have shown the enormous extent to which natural changes occur in parallel to the anthropogenic ones. Besides such temporary events, long-term changes such as variations in the Earth's orbit or the drifting of the continents are also important. They form the background to the newly initiated anthropogenic processes. So even though this discussion framework concentrates on those environmental changes which are caused by anthropogenic activities, an intensified study of natural processes is nevertheless of elemental importance, and is indispensible in answering the question as regards in which areas measures need to be taken.

Prerequisites for the judgement of ongoing and expected global changes are a well-founded knowledge of the past evolution of ecosystems, the environmental conditions under which they are stable and the way anthropogenic interference acts upon these systems.

System orientated approaches to research

Consequently, environmental research must also be system orientated and aimed at the determination of the system parameters for both the distant past as well as for current developments. Two decisive parameters which are currently known are the temperature and the atmospheric carbon dioxide content. Even though the causal relations between them are still not completely clarified, it is certain that on a time scale of thousands of years a correlation exists between the concentration of CO2 and the global mean temperature (box 1). The more recent and more accurate data since 1860 also show this correlation. Therefore it can be expected, that a further increase in the content of CO2 will cause a global warming. In this connection the observed time scales of the change are important: the concentration of the carbon dioxide has never before increased so rapidly.

hier Box 1 einfügen

A further important system parameter is the number of existing animal and plant species. It is conservatively estimated that 0.2% to 0.3% of the two million or so species living in the rain forests (that is 4000 to 6000 species) become extinct each year as a result of the destruction of their habitats. Thus human interference increases the natural rate of extinction by a factor of ten thousand. (box 2).

hier Box 2 einfügen

Interdisciplinary

Integral solution approaches are an essential condition for precautionary actions in environmental politics. Therefore attempts must be made to integrate sociology and economics into the hitherto mainly scientifically and technically orientated efforts.

Growth of population

One of the main reasons for global changes in the environment is the increasing world population, which in the developing countries alone will grow by about 850 million during the nineties. This increase is larger than the total present population of the western industrial countries. A strong population growth in the developing countries contributes massively to the destruction of the local environment; this is a result of the pressures associated with safeguarding survival. The damaging consequences of forced industrialization processes and an increasingly intensive food production in the developing countries also become apparent.

Responsibility of the industrial countries

Global stress on the environment is mainly caused by the industrial development. Up to now, it is primarily people in the industrial countries who have benefitted from this development. Even today the industrial countries contribute the main part of the emissions causing global environmental problems. Worldwide environmental partnership, however, requires that the lesser developed countries can also obtain and maintain the means for an environmentally sound development. This includes a more efficient and careful handling of the limited supply of raw materials by all countries, especially the industrial ones. The present industrial countries need to take a special responsibility in contributing to the long-term preservation of the environment by developing, keeping at hand and broadly applying environmentally sound technologies.

Joint actions

Concepts for joint actions are therefore necessary. The central focus at the moment is the discussion of a lasting limitation of the emissions of CO2, within the framework of an international climate convention.

A worldwide environmental partnership in combating the global threats is one of the prerequisites in order to achieve the determined and joint action of all nations.

Integration of environmental politics

But the connection between environmental research and political action should not be regarded as a chronological progression: first research and then initiation of measures. Faced with the complexity of global environmental processes decisions on environmental politics will have to be made in the foreseeable future with some amount of uncertainty. Because of the long-term interactions (especially in the area of global changes) measures in environmental politics must not be delayed because of relations that are not yet scientifically fully understood, provided that science has already found assured evidence for hazards to the environment by human activities. On the other hand, gaps in the scientific knowledge should be filled by research as quickly as possible. Only then can one check the efficiency of measures already taken and the possibility of further optimization.

Educational politics

The necessary measures for the protection of the environment can only be taken if they are based on a broad agreement. A common consensus can be achieved mainly by convincing people of the necessity of measures so that they are even willing to behave individually in an environmentally sound way. It is thus necessary to convey research results both to educational institutions (schools, vocational schools and universities) and to the media in a form which is specific for special target groups and technically sound. This will be a major task of educational politics in the future.

3. Function and contents of the conceptual framework

The present conceptual framework is based on a report on "Global Change Research" passed by the Federal cabinet on 28th November 1990, which includes a first summary of ongoing research activities in this area and indicates focal points for further actions.

The conceptual framework gives a survey summarising the possibilities of relating the ongoing activities of the various subsections to each other. However, the specific concepts for programs compiled for single fields will remain the basis for concrete proposals.

4. Political strategy of research and problem orientated key research areas

Problem orientated research

Global change research is problem orientated research, the results of which are supposed to provide options for action by the political decision makers, in order to safeguard a lasting sustainable development of the Earth.

Caused mainly by anzhropogenic emission, the most important current global enviromental problems are:

- changes in the atmosphere resulting in additional warming

- destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer,

- hazards to the oceans and ice regions,

- threats to sensitive terrestrial ecosystems and to species diversity

There are multiple interactions and feedbacks between these global problem areas, which are hazardous to the global environment. However it is not sufficient to study only the causes and processes which lead to global environmental problems. One must show how the research results can be politically realized for a lasting, sustainable development. In order to do this, progressive goals in environmental politics must be secured scientifically, and socially and economically sound strategies and mechanisms need to be scientifically analysed.

Problem orientated global change research need not break new scientific ground but can be based on fundamental research areas (box 3), which have been extensively supported for a long time on national and international scales.

hier Box 3 einfügen

Because of the multiple interactions and feedbacks between the problems mentioned above, the goal of research policy is to integrate knowledge and ongoing activities (according to needs) within the fundamental research areas into the respective problem orientated key research areas.

It is not sufficient to study the causes and processes which can threaten the survival capability of planet Earth by using only a purely scientific approach. Global change research also has to deal with the problem how efficient, socially and economically sound options for actions and mechanisms can be derived from the research results. This task requires a close cooperation between scientists and sociologists, for example in the prerequisites needed in order to determine the limiting values for the environmental media and ecosystems, and for the development of suitable strategies and mechanisms to reduce the current high burden levels of the environment. In order to make measures for the protection of the environment tolerable, individual environmental behaviour and the possibilities of influencing it have to be studied. There is probably no other way to complete the necessary structural and institutional changes within the different social areas (production, consumption and transport, relations between industrial and developing countries).

The subject matter of these problem orientated key research areas is subdivided into the following areas:

Box 4: Research on the greenhouse effect

The advancement of high-resolution global climate models is one of the focal points of climate research. Besides the integration of new findings, the main goal is the regionalisation of the predictions of global climate models. Thus it will be possible to connect research on the impact of climate change in the first instance with studies on the impacts of a changing climate on man and on the environment on a regional or local scale. The significance of the subject matter "climate regionalisation and climatic impact" is shown by the foundation of a new institute for research on climatic impact in Potsdam. The area "climate, agriculture, forestry and fishery" is being tackled by the research department of the Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Forestry by the new orientation of single institutes.

Tasks with the highest priority for research on the impact of climate change will be in the areas of coastal regions, agriculture, forestry and alpine ecosystems. These can only be elaborated through an interdisciplinary cooperation between the natural and social sciences. Predictions of the indirect effects on man and society, and the resulting feedbacks on the Earth system are still very uncertain.

Box 5: Research on the reduction of ozone

The study of the chemistry of the stratosphere includes all anthropogenic trace gases relevant to the reduction of ozone, especially the photochemical decomposition products of halogen hydrocarbons. In the mean time, many of the complicated mechanisms by which these products contribute to the reduction of ozone have to a large extent been clarified. The findings now need to be quantified in detail and converted into mathematical models in order to estimate the effects of international regulating measures on the development of the ozone layer.

It is planned to provide a high-flying airplane (STRATO 2C) in order to take measurements not only in the lower stratosphere. It will acquire regular in situ as well as remote sensing data covering a whole area, for which different parameters can then be determined simultaneously within the same atmospheric layer.

Increasing air traffic, and in the distant future space travel are anthropogenic emission sources of climaticly relevant gases within the upper troposphere and the stratosphere. Selective research is planned on this topic.

Box 6: Research on changes in the oceans and ice regions

The study of the oceans is relevant to global research in many ways. The oceanic circulation, the continental water circulation and the sea level are expected to react to changed environmental conditions. The pollution of the sea and the exploitation of the oceans for the production of food and raw materials have a damaging impact on marine ecosystems.

The multiple interactions between ocean and atmosphere are of extensive and overriding significance for global climatic processes. So the warming of the atmosphere by the anthropogenic greenhouse effect would be significantly higher without the retarding effect of the oceans, which absorb roughly half of the CO2 released annually. This retardation is at least 30 years, but it will not prevent a probable change of the oceanic circulation, which, with its present characteristic course, causes an exchange of cold water from the deeper regions with the warmer surface water. The melting of terrestrial ice masses and changes in the formation of sea ice influence the constitution of deep and ocean floor water and thus the thermohaline circulation of the oceans.

At present the consequences of changes in the oceans often cannot be estimated. The world's oceans, especially the deep sea regions, are sensitive and still widely unexplored physical and ecological systems. The respects in which an ocean's ecosystem is threatened by changes in its ability to survive, can only be investigated by intensive new research.

Box 7: Research on threatened terrestrial ecosystems

Man nowadays threatens almost all the terrestrial ecosystems on Earth. The most important causes for their endangerment and destruction are direct anthropogenic exploitation (settlement, transport, agriculture, forestry, production of raw materials and energy), the impact of pollutants and acid rain, the expected increasing climate changes caused by an increased greenhouse effect and the reduction of the stratospheric ozone layer. Significant consequences of the destruction of terrestrial ecosystems are the extinction of species and desertification, which again will have repercussions on the climate.

Because of increasing hazards to the tropical rain forests and the related negative impacts on local, regional and global scales, long-term research efforts, support of existing research stations and the establishment of further ones in tropical countries are required, amongst other things. Moreover, there should be an even greater interlinking with development aid projects.

Box 8: Research towards realization of the concept of "Sustainable Development"

The greenhouse effect, destruction of ozone, hazards to the oceans and the threats to sensitive ecosystems are the results of social and economic developments which are characterized by serious and ever increasing interference with nature. The rapid growth of the world population and the related increasing differences in the living standards between industrial and third world countries aggravate global environmental problems because of the poverty driven destruction of the environment. This leads to agricultural over-exploitation and thus to the destruction of soils, as well as to the deforestation of the tropical forests (in order to gain new agricultural acreage and to achieve larger exports).

This development is increasingly regarded as socially and environmentally unsound. Therefore in 1987 the World Commission on Environment and Development (Brundtland Commission) formulated in its report the concept of a sustainable development. This means a development which satisfies the needs of the present population without endangering the possibilities of life of future generations by excessive demands on environmental and raw material resources.

Interdisciplinary research contributes significantly to the consolidation and political realization of the concept of a sustainable development, for example by determining load limits for environmental media and ecosystems, by acquiring and quantifying the impacts of global changes and by the development of the effective, socially and economically sound strategies and mechanisms which are needed to reduce the current high load levels of the global environment.

Research on the perception of global environmental problems, on environmental awareness and on environmental behaviour on national and international scales is necessary in order to increase the acceptance of the rigorous measures needed to safeguard a sustainable development.

5. Previous and planned support activities

Support programs of the Federal Ministry for Research and Technology (BMFT)

During the seventies, possible global changes caused by increasing concentrations of atmospheric trace substances were discussed by scientists. The German Federal Government has taken up the recommendations of the scientists and established corresponding research programs.

Climate Research

The Climate Research Program of the BMFT (conceived as a German contribution to the World Climate Program), was passed by the German Federal Government in 1982. It concentrated mainly on problems of fundamental research in the subject areas of climate and atmosphere, following the scientific recommendations at that time. These research projects allowed the basic knowledge to be enlarged and the prerequisites for developing climate models to be ascertained. Important contributions led to an increased understanding of the role of anthropogenically generated trace substances within the global radiation and heat balance of the atmosphere. It should be possible in the near future to predict future global climatic changes with regard to changed concentrations of climatically relevant trace materials. To accomplish this, the BMFT established in 1989 the key research area "Greenhouse Effect" within the framework of the Climate Research Program.

EUROTRAC

In addition the key research area "Physicochemical Processes in the Atmosphere" established in 1986 has (within the framework of atmospheric research) significantly contributed to a better understanding of the formation, transformation and spread of climatically relevant trace substances in the atmosphere. Since 1988 the research activities on this subject, which partly also includes impacts on the biosphere, are mainly integrated in the EUREKA project EUROTRAC.

Ozone Research

Research projects dealing with the problems of the stratospheric reduction of ozone are promoted by the BMFT within the framework of the "Ozone Research Program", established in 1988.

Ecosystem Research

The research on ecosystems studies the conditions under which terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (agricultural and forest ecosystems, woodland ecosystems, water landscapes, alpine ecosystems, tropical ecosystems, urban ecosystems) are stable and what impacts are to be expected as a result of their exploitation and anthropogenic environmental changes. With respect to the future, it is of eminent importance to study how the cultivation of ecosystems can be made ecologically sound, which measures have to be taken for their redevelopment and lasting protection, and what social and economic consequences these will have. Further key projects of research on ecosystems are aimed at the protection and restoration of threatened biotopes (moorlands, heathlands) and species diversity, as well as at the protection of the soil with respect to different and partly competitive modes of exploitation, and changes of exploitation.

Marine Research

The program "Marine Research and Marine Technology" also has close connections with global change research. Research projects are helping for example, to improve our understanding of the interactions between the oceans and the atmosphere, and to study bio-geochemical cycles relevant to global exchange processes and their variations. The same is true for the key project "Polar Research" which is promoting studies on interactions within the ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere system or paleoclimatic processes. Within the EUREKA-project EUROMAR technologies are beeing developed to install and run a marine monitoring and information system.

Extent of support

The following table shows the extent of research support on the subject matter "Global Change" in 1990. It can be seen that the Federal Republic has provided about 364 Million DM for the support of global change research in 1990. This sum does not include the institutional funds of the Max-Planck-Gesellschaft (Max Planck Society, MPG); funds of the States (Länder) of the Federal Republic are included only for support measures carried out together with the Federal Government. A detailed distribution of the amounts of support is given in the table in the appendix, p. ...

hier Kurztabelle "Support of Global Change Research..." einfügen

Environmental Program of the European Community, EC.

Significant synergy effects are also to be expected by cooperation with the considerably increased environmental research of the EC, within the framework of the Environmental Research Program 1991-1994 which is expected to be funded at the level of 246 Mio. ECU. Besides increased activity on questions of global changes (the European Arctic Stratospheric Ozone Experiment 1991/92, coordinated by the EC is a very good example) socio-economic problems are included for the first time.

New activities

In the future, the BMFT will continue to increase the support of "Global Change Research", e.g. for research on the impact of climatic change and for research on the impact of increased UV-B-radiation.

Climate impact research

A new key research area "Climate impact research" is presently being elaborated. In the framework of this key research area it is planned to study in particular the impacts of climatic change on natural ecosystems (land surfaces, oceans), and the socio-economic impact on agriculture and forestry, on the economy in general and on society.

Research on impacts of UV-B-radiation

The consequences of increased UV-B-radiation (caused by a reduction of the stratospheric ozone layer) are also largely unclear. New key research areas are planned to speed up the exact determination of the UV-B-intensity near the ground, and to research its impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and on human health.

Data management

Global change research is increasingly carried out using remote sensing programmes. The amounts of data acquired are such that they cannot be analysed by conventional means. The development of models for analysing and storing data is therefore an important task.

New research institutions

Global change research will also rank highly in the new Länder of the Federal Republic. Nine new research institutes have been founded there as part of the recent reorganisation of research, and they have a total of 776 staff members. Their emphasis will be on global change research and thus they will provide major contributions to this field. For instance, the Environmental Research Center Leipzig-Halle (Umweltforschungszentrum, UFZ), a National Research Center, will deal with the scientific fundamentals of environmental problems in highly burdened industrial conurbations. The Institute of Tropospheric Research (Institut für Troposhärenforschung, IfT) in Leipzig will study the heavily overloaded troposphere, and the Institut for Atmospheric Physics ( Institut für Athmosphärenphysik IAP) the upper athmosphere.

Environmental technology

The Federal Government is also contributing to the development of sustainable technologies by promoting environmental technologies and production methods which are low in emission and waste, and by supporting research on renewable resources and energies.

6. Realization

Global change research urgently needs international coordination. This is allowed for in the research framework presented here. A number of cooperation and coordination levels will now be examined:

Bilateral activities

In the early eighties, bilateral collaborations between the Federal Republic and other states had already initiated projects in subject areas which are today classified as global change research. Recently, bilateral collaboration has significantly increased. The number of states participating in projects has increased and a broader spectrum of themes is now worked on. Even though bilateral collaboration in global change research is of importance, multilateral collaborations usually have a higher priority.

International programs

On the level of large international programs, especially IGBP and WCRP, committees and mechanisms are already in existence in many cases. These committees can enable a program orientated, scientific coordination of the countries involved. The projects are funded by national contributions and by contributions from the EC. The following figure shows the organizational connections of the programs and projects.

hier die entsprechende Übersicht "Internationale Programme" einfügen

The table above shows the international organizations, as well as their main programs concerning enviromental research and the related projects ( the names are diven in full lenght in the list of abbreviations in the appendix).

Integration of developing countries into global change research efforts: System for Analysis, Research and Training (START)

There is a special responsibility towards the countries of the Third World, especially with respect to their participation in internationally coordinated research efforts. In addition, bilateral activities and cooperation with the corresponding receiving countries are possible via the active collaboration and integration of both partners in a regional research network or research center.

Scientific advisory committee

Faced with the increasing significance and growing extent of global change research, a "Global Change Scientific Advisory Committee" will be established to advise the Federal Government. It will present the Federal Government an annual report based on expert opinion, giving an up to date description of the environmental situation and its consequences, and showing the nature and extent of possible changes. The advisory committee will give recommendations for research, and based on a judgement of the state of research, advice on the avoidance of undesirable trends and their elimination. A secretariat will be established in order to support the advisory committee.

APPENDIX

1. Introduction

This appendix provides a further explanation of the fundamental research areas. The current state of research and the research needs in problem orientated key research areas are described in more detail. Moreover, the most important scientific tools for global change research are presented and a review of previous and planned support activities is given. Finally, international cooperation and national coordination is discussed.

2. Fundamental Research Areas

2.1 Climate and hydrological systems

One of the most important topics of research on environmental problems is concerned with climatically relevant processes in the atmosphere, oceans, terrestrial and freshwater surfaces and the cryosphere. The study of the interactions and exchange processes between these components of the Earth system is of special interest. Insufficient knowledge of the exchange processes (involving energy momentum and water) between the atmosphere and oceans and the related retardant impact of the ocean on changes within the atmosphere seriously hamper a better understanding of the global climate system. Additional important problems include the impacts of clouds, snow and ice on the radiation balance, oceanic circulations, the heat balance of the oceans and the chemistry of the troposphere.

Example: Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models: Coupled models are necessary in order to study climatic changes. The models describe the exchange of energy, water and momentum at the surface of the oceans. Coupling oceanic and atmospheric models is difficult, however, because of the different circulation time scales of the atmosphere and oceans, and the so called climate drift caused by the inevitable systematic errors in the individual models. These problems especially influence forecasts of regional climate parameters when based on coupled models. There have already been attempts to solve both problems.

2.2 Stratospheric processes and solar influences

The intensity of UV-B-radiation at the Earth's surface is mainly determined by the concentration of stratospheric ozone. An increase in UV-B-radiation caused by a reduced concentration of stratospheric ozone ("ozone hole") can have lasting consequences for life on Earth. Meanwhile, it is certain that emission of industrially produced halogenated hydrocarbons (CFC's) causes the observed destruction of ozone within the stratosphere. Changed concentrations of ozone can also have impacts on the temperature, circulation and composition of the atmosphere, on the heat balance, and can intensify the natural greenhouse effect.

Although the main chemical processes in the destruction of ozone are largely known, seasonal variations of atmospheric parameters concerning polar vortices, halogen and nitrogen oxide transport mechanisms, and chemical processes within the stratosphere are currently under intense study.

In this connection, problems concerning the impacts of vulcanoes or solar variability (on the upper atmosphere and the climate for example) are also being studied.

2.3 Bio-geochemical cycles

Multidisciplinary studies are necessary in order to obtain a quantitive picture of the most important sources, sinks and exchange processes of unfixed bio-geochemical components of the environmental system. A quantitive understanding of the cycles of carbon, nitrogen and sulphur (as well as of halogens) is of especial significance. The productivity of terrestrial and aquatic living organisms is based largely on the availability and quantity of these components in combination with oxygen and hydrogen. The stability of natural ecosystems also requires sufficient supplies of the substances mentioned above.

Examples: Bio-geochemical cycles of the oceans are controlled by complicated physical, biological and geochemical processes. These processes are subject to, and in turn control complicated feedback mechanisms. The primary production within the upper 100 meters of the ocean (which is responsible for the major part of marine production) depends on sufficient amounts of light and the presence of nutrients, in this case primarily nitrogen, but also phosphorus, and in high southern latitudes possibly iron.

Important fluxes of materials (for example dimethyl sulphide and carbon dioxide) through the boundary layer at the air-ocean interface considerably affect the properties of the oceans and the atmosphere. The transition zone between the land and the oceans is characterized by a high biological activity, i.e. by high transformation rates within an accelerated cycle. This boundary region, which has a high level of human activity, will probably be critically affected by any possible global warming.

2.4 Ecological systems and their development

There is almost no remaining natural ecosystem on Earth which is totally unaffected. The observed habitats range from those which are almost natural to those which have been substantially changed and even impaired by human interference.

The intake of carbon and nitrogen, and the respiration and transpiration of living organisms at the boundary between the atmosphere and the terrestrial surface are determined by the fluxes of energy and gases there. Changes in these processes have different impacts on the fauna and flora, impacts which depend on the species and genera. For cultivated ecosystems, the adaptability of the plants to changed environmental conditions such as temperature variations and changes in precipitation patterns will be of essential significance.

2.5 Global changes in the history of Earth

There are a number of parameters which are significant for models of climatic processes and forecasts of possible future climatic changes. These include the development of temperature in earlier times, the composition and circulation of the atmosphere, changes in the flux of materials transported by wind and water in the oceans, variations in biological productivity and the reactions of biological systems to environmental changes. The only way to obtain a continuous and detailed record of these parameters is to carry out conventional deep sea drillings in sediments of the Miocene, which are up to 20 million years old.

The oceanic and atmospheric circulation has also been affected by relatively rapid variations in the Earth's orbit as well as by very slow developments controlled by global tectonic processes. Variations in climate and oceanic conditions under totally different circumstances during the Mesozoic ("warm ocean"), and the transition from a world free of ice to a glacial epoch during the Paleocene are of special interest. The impacts of these changed environmental conditions can only be studied using the nearly complete series of sedimentary layers reaching way back into history of Earth. Series of sediments meeting these requirements and reaching back to about 140 Million years can be drilled in some deep sea regions.

The significance of the climate to the sea level is shown especially in the trapping of large masses of water within continental glaciers and polar ice caps. This results in a lowering of the sea level which in turn has consequences for the composition of sea water and its circulation.

Carbon is of central significance to the climate. Measurements of carbon dioxide concentrations within gas bubbles in the polar ice comprise an important "archive" of climatic history. The evolution of the climate during the ice ages, the establishment of climate models for the Cretaceous period, and last but not least the question of a future climatic change due to an increased greenhouse effect depend on a thorough knowledge of the carbon cycle.

The carbon cycle is mainly fed by two reservoirs: on the one hand there are short-term interactions within the relatively small carbon resources of the atmosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere, which are mainly affected by oceanic circulations and biological production rates. On the other hand, there are long-term processes within the immense carbon reservoir of the lithosphere with its carbonaceous rocks and fossilised organic materials of which oil, natural gas and coal comprise only a minor portion. Finally there is an exchange between these two reservoirs. Carbonaceous sediments form and organic material is laid down in them. However, carbon dioxide is produced by the erosion of sediments and the burning of fossil hydrocarbons.

The significance of the single processes and their rates can only be studied on a geological time scale.

Example: An unexpected result has been obtained from drill cores of ice covering a period from 70 000 and 30 000 years ago: in the North Atlantic region the climate had obviously alternated several times between colder and warmer conditions. The last of these events took place about 12 000 years ago during the transition to the Holocene epoch. These transitions between ice ages and warm periods are connected with variations in the extension of cold zones in the North Atlantic, as is shown by studies of oceanic sediments. The temperature distribution in the North Atlantic is a sensitive indicator of the global thermohaline current. The impacts of these climate oscillations on the vegetation have been established by pollen analysis in freshwater lake sediments.

2.6 Man-society-environment interactions

Global change research should contribute to the development of refined and efficient strategies for the preservation of the environment and our living conditions. In order to accomplish this it is necessary (but not sufficient) to measure, understand and predict the biological and physical processes caused by human interference which can lead to global changes. Moreover, a better understanding of the interactions between these processes and the activities of man (who both cause these global changes and suffers from them) is necessary. At this point environmental political strategies need to be applied.

In analysing socio-economic interactions one must distinguish between the different levels of the relation between man (i.e. society) and the environment:

1. Man causes major impacts on the environment by virtue of his sheer number, the distribution of his settlements and his demands. This takes the form of increased exploitation of natural resources, increased land use for settlements, food production and economic activities, and the production of pollution and waste. Therefore, a better understanding of the correlations between population growth and population distribution and the resulting impacts on the environment are necessary. The causes of regionally very different population growths for example, and of migrations also need to be analysed. The feedbacks of changed environmental conditions on the demographic evolution and migrations have to be especially studied.

2. Another level is that of individual environmental behaviour. How does man perceive environmental conditions and their (impending) changes and how does he judge them? What is the impact these perceptions and judgements have on his environmental consciousness and behaviour? Any analysis of these correlations using empirical studies also has to consider other (intervening) variables such as educational, cultural and religious differences, correlations between environmental behaviour and living standards, and the behaviour of social reference groups and socialization influences, to name but a few.

3. However, interactions between man and the environment are determined not only by population figures and individual environmental behaviour but also by the institutional structures in which human societies are organized (economic, social, fiscal, legal and administrative structures). They result in certain structural forms within essential sectors such as industry, agriculture, transport and private lifestyles, all with their own specific impacts on the environment. It is notable that these more indirect interactions between institutional structures and environmental conditions are just as little studied as the institutional reactions on changing environmental conditions.

4. Finally, the correlations between scientific and technological progress and environmental conditions are also relevant within the framework of socio-economic interactions, i.e. how does scientific and technological progress influence environmental conditions and vice versa?

In this context research has to deal with especially complex problems, because of the multiplicity of interactions among the different levels describt above.

3. Problem orientated key research areas

3.1 Research on the greenhouse effect / climate research

Description of the Problems:

Naturally occuring trace gases in the atmosphere lead to an increased equilibrium temperature between the incident short wavelength solar radiation and the longer wavelength radiation which is emitted from the atmosphere and the Earth's surface. The increasing anthropogenic input of greenhouse relevant trace substances (including water vapour) into the atmosphere results in a changed radiation balance of the Earth. This leads to a global change in the temperature and precipitation patterns.

One of the essential contributions to the intensification of the natural greenhouse effect is the increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Carbon dioxide is integrated into the complex process of the carbon cycle. The carbon contained in carbon dioxide is bound up by plants (via photosynthesis) into biomass, and later released again as carbon dioxide by biological or chemical oxidation processes. Major reservoirs in this cycle besides the atmopshere are the ocean, the living biomass and the humus layer. Part of the carbon is removed from this cycle by sedimentation and geological stratification processes, whilst carbon is added to it mainly by the the combustion of fossil fuels.

The anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide presently amounts to about 25 billion tonnes (Gigatonnes) per year. Only about half of it is removed from the atmosphere by carbon sinks and storage, the remainder leading to an acute reinforcement of the natural greenhouse effect. In addition, other anthropogenic trace gases such as CFC's, ozone and nitric oxides contribute to a change in the radiation balance. Agriculture, waste dumps and emissions caused by the extraction of fossil fuels release an additional 0.5 billion tonnes of methane. Its effect as a greenhouse gas is reckoned to be 30 times higher per molecule than that of carbon dioxide. There are in addition approximately 50 more substances whose greenhouse potential cannot be ignored.

The emission of these gases results in a disturbed heat balance, which will have effects on the Earth's climate. Natural ecosystems, as well as agriculture and forestry will be affected by this. Thus the foundations of man's way of life will be changed, and so the economy and society will also be influenced.

Review of current research:

Climate research

Changes in the radiation balance of the Earth only make themselves known after a very long time delay and they are geographically very different. The development of long-term climate models is one of the focal points of climate research. In addition to radiation data, cloud cover and atmospheric circulations, the most recent coupled ocean-atmosphere models also take into account the retarding effect of the ocean. Moreover, because of the ever increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, models have long been calculated with the aim of describing not only the current state of the Earth system but also its evolution. Here, important contributions are being made above all by the combined projects "Climate Models and Climate Diagnosis", "Radiation and Clouds" and "Calculations of Scenarios". The main forecasts of the new models are the following:

- The impacts will be regionally different. According to recent computations of the Deutsches Klima-Rechenzentrum (German Climate Computer Center) there is only a slight warming in the antarctic region. In a generally warmer world there might even be locations where the temperature drops.

- The slow deep mixing of the oceans retards global warming and causes regional differences.

- The interiors of the continents are warming up faster.

New research approaches:

The further development of climate models will include the findings from paleoclimatology and of climate diagnosis. Moreover, the parameter "clouds" will be increasingly taken into account by future calculations. To date, global climate models are calculated on a horizontal grid of 500 x 500 km[2]; efforts are being made towards finer gridding. Important parameters such as clouds and the distribution of precipitation can be forecasted only on large scales at the moment.

Therefore an important goal is the regionalization of climate models. This will allow a direct connection with research on the impact of climate change, which is studying the impact of a changing climate on man and on the environment on regional or local scales.

Climate impact research

Current activities in climate impact research are aimed firstly at the immediate consequences of global climate changes for coastal areas, agriculture and forestry, as well as for alpine ecosystems. Such studies are based on scenarios of regional climate changes, which are derived from the latest results of climate models. The important parameter in this problem is the availability of water. Climatic factors, in addition to direct human interference via the changing use of land have large impacts on the water cycle. Such effects are already noticeable today. For example, there is a great shortage of drinking water in many regions of the Earth, and even industrial nations can only provide clean drinking water by making an increased technical expenditure.

Medium-term research on the impacts of climate change will have to include the indirect impacts on man and society as well as the resulting feedbacks on the Earth system. This requires interdisciplinary collaboration between the natural and social sciences.

Climatic changes can influence the strength of the sources and sinks of climatically relevant trace gases in ecosystems, which in turn will have feedbacks on the climate. The direct, multiplying, growth-stimulating impact of carbon dioxide on most species of plant is regarded in this case as very important. Although the CO2-fertilization is not caused by climate, it cannot be studied separately from the phenomena mentioned above. The influence of the concentration of carbon dioxide on the biosphere, especially on plants, is therefore an additional parameter which has to be considered in all studies of climate impacts.

Combined projects are currently being defined on the subjects "Climate Change and Agriculture" and "Climate Change and Coast". The foundation of an institute in Potsdam for research on climatic consequences, and the new orientation of certain institutes within the department of the Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Forestry demonstrate the topicality of this subject matter.

3.2 Research on ozone depletion

The destruction of the ozone layer is caused mainly by the halogenated hydrocarbons, which will be discussed in the following. The increase in air traffic has also recently entered the discussion.

a) Halogenated hydrocarbons

Description of Problems:

In hydrocarbons the hydrogen atoms are partially or completely replaced by halogen atoms (fluorine, chlorine, bromine). Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's) are used in the production of plastic foam, as propellants in sprays and in refrigeration technology; brominated hydrocarbons (halons) are used mainly in fire extinguishers.

Atmospheric halogenated hydrocarbons can essentially be decomposed only by photolysis: this is because of their chemical inertia, a highly desired property in many technical applications.The decomposition occurs by ultraviolet radiation and therefore mainly in the stratosphere. This is especially true for completely halogenated hydrocarbons which show an even greater chemica inertia than uncompletely halogenated ones.

Chlorine and (even more efficiently) bromine atoms released by photolysis catalyze chemical reactions which contribute substantially to the depletion of stratospheric ozone. Only fluorine atoms are bound quickly enough into a catalytically ineffective form.

Halogenated hydrocarbons emitted many years ago still contribute today to the destruction of stratospheric ozone: this is because of their long residence time within the atmosphere. In turn, current emissions will still contribute to the ozone depletion a hundred years from now.

Many nations have already appreciated the consequences of this and plan to prohibit or limit the production of completely halogenated hydrocarbons in particular. Germany has adopted a leading position with its resolution to prohibit the production and use of CFC's by 1995.

Review of current research:

The current BMFT ozone research program is aimed at the recognition of changed stratospheric ozone concentrations (especially in the northern hemisphere), research into their causes and the reliable prediction of future developments. Research on stratospheric chemistry includes all trace gases relevant to the depletion of ozone, especially the photochemical decomposition products of halogenated hydrocarbons.

Most of the activities of the ozone research program are directly related to the European measuring campaign EASOE (European Arctic Stratosperic Ozone Experiment) carried out during winter 1991/92. This campaign should clarify processes within the polar vortex and show the similarities and differences between the mechanisms which lead to the yearly occuring and ever increasing antarctic "ozone hole".

Besides ozone sondes, the development of other measuring devices is being advanced: these will be able to measure additional substances relevant to the destruction of ozone. The measurements are mainly obtained by balloon or aeroplane borne instruments; the Federal Ministry of Defence has provided for this purpose a Transall transport aircraft, amongst other things.

The chemical processes relevant to the destruction of ozone are being studied by laboratory experiments. The physico-chemical and radiation-physical findings and hypotheses are included in mathematical models, which also take into account meteorological-dynamical processes. Numerical results can thus be compared with real observational data.

Research activities on the reduction of CFC-emissions are being supported within the BMFT's key research area "Reduction of halogenated hydrocarbon emissions", in order to prevent a further impairment of the ozone layer. In addition to industry's own efforts, a total of 30 projects are supported in the important areas of solvents and detergents, the foaming of plastics, and in refrigeration and air-conditioning technology.

New research approaches:

Meanwhile, many of the complicated mechanisms by which decomposition products of halogenated hydrocarbons contribute to the depletion of ozone have at least been qualitatively clarified. These findings have now to be quantified in detail and put into mathematical models which enable one to forecast the impact of international regulation measures on the development of the ozone layer.

Significantly less is known about the effects of bromine in halons (which is much more efficient in destroying ozone) than about chlorine in the CFC's. In this case, field measurements as well as laboratory data are lacking. Moreover, it is becoming more and more clear, that besides pure gas-phase chemistry, the heterogeneous chemistry on the surfaces of icy particles in polar stratospheric clouds is of great significance, and therefore needs to be studied in detail. The deficits in our knowledge are known and the first research proposals have already been made.

The long-term provision of a high-flying research aircraft such as STRATO 2C should be worked towards, in order to carry out measurements not only in the lower stratosphere. Regular remote sensing data covering a complete area (and which simultaneously determine different parameters within the same volume of air) can be expected from the ATMOS-program, which is under discussion. Such developments will have to be included in international activities for reasons of cost, as is already the case for part of the current measuring activities. In the case of ATMOS this will be the POEM-program (polar platforms) of ESA (European Space Agency).

Variations in the UV-B-intensity near the ground (caused by the depletion of ozone) and their effects are largely unexplained and unexplored. Current ozone research is therefore complemented by research activities on the determination of variations in the UV-B-intensity, the impacts of UV-B-radiation on fauna and flora, as well as on the chemistry and dynamics of the atmosphere, and on the climate.

b) High-altitude air traffic

Description of Problems:

Air traffic is the only continuous anthropogenic source of emissions (mainly water vapour and carbon dioxide, but also carbon monoxide, nitric oxides, unburnt hydrocarbons etc.) in the upper troposphere and the stratosphere. Chemical gas-phase reactions of nitric oxides and of their photolytic products (but also the increasingly occuring heterogeneous chemical processes in stratospheric cloud droplets) can contribute to the stratospheric depletion of ozone. This problem would become even worse if, according to the Enquete Commission, air traffic would double by the year 2050 and shift to higher altitudes.

The first evidence of this problem already showed up in the seventies (CIAP-study). It led to a decision in the USA against the development of supersonic passenger aircraft.

Review of current research:

The key BMFT research area "Hypersonic Technology", and the special research project "Physics of Flight of Hypersonic Aircraft and Space Transporters" of the German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG), as well as the study and research contracts awarded by the Federal Environment Office (Umweltbundesamt) are related to atmospheric aspects of aviation and astronautics. The latter will deal mainly with the emissions caused by aviation. In addition the BMFT supports a technology assessment study concerning hypersonic technology.

National and international research and support programs, particularly the Ozone Research Program of the BMFT and the key BMFT research area on the greenhouse effect, have contributed extensively to our fundamental knowledge of the relevant physico-chemical processes in the atmosphere.

New research approaches:

The DFG is planning a fundamental key research program on "Possible Impacts of Aviation on the Atmosphere".

The German Aerospace Establishment (Deutsche Forschungsanstalt für Luft- und Raumfahrt, DLR) is planning an interdisciplinary, joint program "Pollutants in Aviation" which will include two subprograms, "Atmospheric Research" and "Aero-engine Technology". The goal is to include results of the subprogram "Atmospheric Research" (which will study the emission, distribution and effects of relevant pollutants) in the development of the subprogram "Aero-engine Technology" as quickly as possible.

3.3 Research on changes in oceans and ice regions

Description of Problems:

The study of the world oceans is relevant to global change research. Whilst oceanic circulations, the hydrological cycle and the mean sea level react only indirectly to changed environmental conditions, pollution and the exploitation of the oceans (in their roles as reservoirs of food and raw materials) have direct impacts on marine ecosystems.

The multiple interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere are of extensive and overriding significance to the global climate. So for instance, the oceans retard the warming of the atmosphere (which is caused by an additional anthropogenic greenhouse effect) by at least 30 years. A change in the oceanic circulation is to be expected as a result of the melting of terrestrial ice and the shifting of the sea-ice boundary. The current characteristic course of this circulation causes the formation of regions of cold deep water in the Atlantic at high latitudes, and leads to the comparatively warm temperatures of western and northern Europe. A change in this circulation could have dramatic consequences, especially for the European climate.

The oceanic circulation cannot be described completely by presently existing means, and there are still not sufficient observational data available to validate the models. According to climate models, there will be a warming of the atmosphere above the oceans in the regions of the polar caps. This could lead to a decrease of the meridional heat fluxes in the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Stream system.

The expected warming will also cause changes in the continental hydrological cycles. In polar regions precipitation will increase wich could cause an even stronger trapping of freshwater in the.

Presently available climate models predict a rise in the mean sea level of only 10 cm within the next decades, when calculated according to the expected increase of atmospheric warming. This rise in sea level is due to thermal expansion of the water. Regional differences in the rise of the sea level will be of particular significance. Areas near extended low-lying coasts will need to be especially prepared for a recession in their coasts. Other serious consequences will be increased tidal amplitudes and storm tide levels.

The pollution of the oceans is alarming not only at coastal regions or river estuary areas, where they are most easily noticed. Traces of pollutants caused by man can also be found increasingly in open and deep sea regions. The consequences show themselves in marine ecosystems. They not only result in destabilization processes within the marine flora and fauna, but also react back on man. Thus the exploitation of the seas (which is of direct economic significance for many nations) causes extensive damage to man and the environment when it is carried out inappropriately.

The ice regions, especially the large inland ice masses and adjacent polar seas with their regions of shelf and sea ice reflect changing environmental conditions to a different degree. Acting as a "climate archive", the land ice gives information about environmental and climatic events as far back as 150 000 years ago. The shelf and sea ice parameters are important for climate models of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Ecosystems in the polar regions, (mainly in the Antarctic) can be regarded as special indicators of already slightly changed environmental conditions: this is because of their isolation.

Review of current research:

The oceanic circulation reacts back on the atmosphere and climate. Studies of the formation of ocean deep water in the Antarctic, of the North Atlantic current system or of the cold air streaming from ice to sea are a few examples of national research projects, which are currently dealing with the physical components of oceanic changes. These activities are internationally integrated into WCRP/WOCE and WCRP/TOGA. Quantitative data on currents in the interior of the ocean are necessary in order to obtain as realistic models of the oceanic circulation as possible. The significance of small-scale circulation systems is currently being discussed more extensively, but they are not yet understood.

The global water cycle with its components evaporation and precipitation, run-off and the formation of ice will be studied in WCRP/GEWEX on a national, European and global scale as it is mainly the water cycle which converts trends in trace gases into changes in the global climate. It is also necessary to obtain global data sets of the most important single parameters.

Interactions between anthropogenic changes in the land use in coastal areas and the influence of variations of the sea level and climatic changes on coastal ecosystems are the subject of the IGBP-key research project "Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone"(IGBP/LOICZ). Moreover, sea levels are important parameters for WCRP/WOCE and WCRP/TOGA experiments.

At the moment, differing predictions have been made for the variations in the sea level which are expected from changes in the water cycle. Nonuniform external conditions, resulting from different physical circumstances at the measuring points for example, complicate the establishment of a global levelling network. New uniform measuring methods need to be developed in order to obtain such a network, and an intercalibration of the data needs to be worked towards.

The study and control of the pollution of the oceans and the development of measures to combat them are the central subject of current research. This research should clarify the whereabouts and impacts of residual substances which are put into the sea, and support long-term biological control of sensitive ecosystems. Increasing eutrophication of coastal waters is the subject of the IGBP key research project "Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone" (IGBP/LOICZ).

New research approaches:

The continuous control of the pollutant content of the oceans in coastal regions presently occurs only at individual and unconnected sites. Therefore, a greater spatial data acquisition needs to be achieved by an extension of the measuring network and by further measuring stations. Moreover, transition zones between shelf regions and deep ocean basins have received little attention so far in considerations on global changes:therefore research in this area needs to be strengthened.

The exploitation of the oceans must be balanced between the production of food and raw materials on the one hand, and the preservation of marine ecosystems on the other.

In many cases, the consequences of changes in the oceans cannot presently be estimated. The world's oceans, especially the deep sea regions, are sensitive and widely unexplored ecoystems. How their viability is endangered by changed conditions can only be determined using new research strategies.

3.4 Research on endangered terrestrial ecosystems

Description of Problems:

Nowadays almost all terrestrial ecosystems are endangered by man. The most significant causes for this are direct anthropogenic exploitation (settlement, transport, agriculture, forestry, production of raw materials and energy), the impacts of pollutants and acid rain, climatic changes which will increasingly occur in the future (reinforcement of the natural greenhouse effect), and the reduction of the stratospheric ozone layer.

The consequences of intensive exploitation of terrestrial ecosystems are the extinction of species, desertification and climatic changes. Every change in terrestrial ecosystems is coupled to changes in the diversity of species, which in turn (by feedback mechanisms) cause hazards to the ecosystems which are the habitats of the respective species. Other feedback mechanisms also represent additional difficulties: the destruction of natural ecosystems also has impacts on the socio-economic framework.

Review of current research:

Tropical forest

Increasing hazards to the tropical rain forests and the related impact on local, regional and global scales has led the BMFT to establish a key research area named SHIFT ("Studies of Human Impact on Forests and Floodplains in the Tropics"): it will study tropical ecosystems. Three central subjects on this theme are dealt with in South America:

- studies on ecology and the exploitation of tropical forests

- studies on anthropogenic impacts on tropical inland water

- the interaction between socio-economic conditions and the environment in tropical ecosystems.

In addition the DFG has established a key research project on the subject "Mechanisms to Preserve Tropical Diversity".

Moreover, research on tropical forests has been supported within cooperative work on development (also in connection with international efforts), by the Ministry for Economic Cooperation (BMZ). Another contribution is the new UNESCO trust project for follow-up research on the cultivation of rain-forests in Papua-New Guinea, Madagascar and in the Amazon region. Research projects on problems of the "Rain forest" and "Afforestation", which have been initiated by the BMZ in recent years, have shown that a better integration of the human sciences (sociology, ethnology etc.) will be necessary in the future. This is needed in order to establish a better connection between research activities and developmental policy, and to increase the relevance of the applications of these studies.

New research approaches:

Long-term research efforts and the establishment of research stations in the tropical countries themselves are required among other things, as well as connection with development aid projects. Moreover, the following studies are of high priority:

- inventory of tropical forests

- tropical ecology (see also "diversity of species")

- tropical forest and climate

- environmentally and socially sound land use

- economic evaluation

- development of strategies for "Protection of rain forests against the remission of debt"

Forests outside the tropics

A key research program within ecological research "Research on Damages to the Forests" was already established by the BMFT in 1983: it has shifted from the inventory phase to deeper analysis.

Since 1988/89, the BMFT has begun to apply the ecosystematic research approach to the study of forest ecosystems. Instead of single research projects on damage to the forest there are large, interdisciplinary, joint projects for research on forest ecosystems. They represent an integrated association of existing expert resources under a common, unified research objective. Scientists in various branches of study are working on them. To date, three such projects have been started at the Universities of Kiel, Göttingen and Bayreuth.

Diversity of species

Current estimates of the total number of species that exist on Earth range between 1.4 and 30 million. The current rate of extinction is also uncertain. Given that both the extinction and the hazards leading to it are concentrated essentially in the tropics, the destruction of tropical forests and the extinction of species must be regarded as being closely connected. It is known that there is a close correlation between the size of a habitat and its potential diversity of species (as shown by islands and relicts of primeval forest). So the creation of isolated habitat "islands" by the dissection of habitats which were originally connected (in industrial as well as in tropical countries) is the most essential factor in the extinction of species. When a species or population falls below a certain minimum number, the genetic range narrows and leads to a decreasing adaptability. The diminution of a species can be brought about by the reduction in size of habitats, the direct removal of species (hunting, animal keeping) or the introduction of species strange to the region (competitors, enemies). The last two factors are the most important when a population/species is already close to dying out. In historic times they have already caused the extinction of some endemic species whose occurence was only limited.

New research approaches:

The BMFT has supported such interdisciplinary, joint projects since 1991. It is the task of such research to improve the scientific foundations for an effective protection of biotopes and species. The problem is to distinguish natural and anthropogenic changes, to uncover their causes and interactions, to study their impacts on species and biotopes, and to develop strategies to combat the present destruction of biotopes and the related diminution of species. Measures for the protection of biotopes are required to preserve the diversity of species.

The paramount goal is to significantly improve the prerequisites for an effective protection of biotopes and species in the near future. It is therefore necessary to transfer the findings of fundamental research to the routine planning and practice of nature protection. In this manner, a contribution to the further development of nature protection will be made, and deficits in research on nature protection in the Federal Republic of Germany remedied. Areas affecting nature protection such as ecology, planning, nature protection technology, the law, the humanities and the social sciences need to be integrated into planned research activities.

3.5 Research on the realization of the concept of a Sustainable Development

Description of Problems:

The global environmental problems mentioned in the previous chapters (impending changes of the climate, the destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer, changes in the oceans, the reduction of the tropical rain forest, the harming of forests in temperate zones and the damage and threats to other sensitive ecosystems, as well as the diminution of the diversity of species) are essentially consequences of an economic and social development which is accompanied by a massive interference with the natural environment and the increasing exploitation of limited, natural resources. At the same time, an ever increasing difference in the living standards of industrial countries and countries of the Third World is observed. Two factors cause damage to the environment: first, an increasing material prosperity in industrial countries (achieved by the conventional way of management) and second, an increasing poverty in countries of the Third World (caused especially by a high growth of population and despite a growth-orientated industrialization). The economic development of western and eastern industrial countries is both energy and material intensive and so these countries (presently providing one quarter of the world population) emit three quarters of the total amount of greenhouse gases. In the countries of the Third World poverty causes the destruction of the environment by agricultural overuse of soils for example, by cultivation of ecologically valuable or sensitive regions (regions of tropical forests) and by deforestation for reasons of energy production. Moreover, the necessity to achieve export profits leads to an excessive and partly ecologically harmful exploitation of raw materials.

Meanwhile it is widely accepted, that this current global economic and social development is already environmentally and socially unsound and that a continuation of this development will dramatically aggravate environmental and related socio-economic problems. Examples of such problems are environmental and (increasingly) economic refugees, armed conflicts over raw material and drinking water, rural depopulation and the growth of poverty in urban centers, especially in the Third World. Possible climatic changes and a rise in the mean sea level could also cause considerable socio-economic problems in the industrial countries.

This development is regarded unanimously in various international studies as unsustainable, especially by the "World Commission on Environment amd Development" (Brundtland-Commission) which in 1987 presented the report "Our Common Future" where the previous development is compared with the concept of a "Sustainable Development".

"Sustainable Development" means a development which satisfies the needs of the present population without the risk that future generations are unable to satisfy their needs (Brundtland-Report).

A necessary precondition is that the present generation does not totally exhaust the ecological and raw material resources of future generations. Of course, this demand does not mean the renouncement of every interference with the environment and exploitation of limited resources, but proceeds via the maximum substitution of ecological and raw material resources by investments in human and physical capital. For instance, by investing in renewable resources, supplies of limited resources can be eked out or, on a long-term basis, even become largely dispensable. However, these substitutions are limited by the irreversibility or the long-range impacts of much environmental damage (destruction of the ozone layer, extinction of species). In such cases, the concept of a sustainable development also has to include general utilization restrictions or prohibitions (cessation of the use of CFC's for example).

Review of current research and new research approaches for the realization of the concept of a sustainable development and its political implementation:

The specification and practical realization of the concept of a sustainable development essentially results in the following tasks which will have to be accomplished mainly by scientific and sociological research:

- The exploitation of ecological and raw material resources, and evaluations of the extent of exploitation with respect to its compatibility with the concept of a sustainable development need to be continuously recorded.

- The costs of the exploitation of ecological and raw material resources (external costs) need to be estimated.

- Socially, economically and ecologically sound mechanisms for the realization of the concept of a sustainable development need to be developed.

Exploitation of ecological and raw material resources

A decisive factor in a sustainable development is that the exploitation of ecological and raw material resources is done as carefully as possible. A systematic and continuous record of the extent of the exploitation of these resources is required in order to control this. In many countries, efforts are being made to accomplish this by complementing the total economic accounting with so-called satellite systems (ecological total accounting). Here the exploitation of ecological and raw material resources is taken into account in the preparation of the gross national product (inclusion of the exploitation of limited raw materials; inclusion of the exploitation of ecological resources via the determination of emissions, waste production, land use etc.) The Federal Statistical Office also has developed a concept for ecological total accounting and is about to put it into use. On the whole, the scientific and technological prerequisites for the inclusion of the exploitation of ecological and raw material resources already exist, so further research will not generally be necessary.

Evaluation of the extent of exploitation and the stress on ecological und raw material resources is much more difficult, i.e. the determination of critical exploitation rates for unrenewable raw materials and the stress limits for environmental media and ecosystems, from which critical emission rates can be derived.

Example: An open question is, how extensively unrenewable fossil fuels can be exploited in a certain period without endangering the energy supply of future generations? The determination of such critical exploitation rates should take into account compensating investments (e.g. investments in renewable energy sources) and improvements in utilization efficiency (e.g. increases in energy efficiency) which can increase the range of natural, unrenewable resources.

Example: Another open question is, how much CO2 and other climatically relevant trace gases can be tolerated by the global environment without causing disadvantageous climatic changes? The critical emission rate and the acceptance rate of the global environment certainly has been exceeded at present. The Enquete Commission of the Deutsche Bundestag has tried to determine a critical rate for CO2 (chosen as a typical example) and then tried to derive reduction goals and emission rates for different groups of countries (industrial countries, countries of the Third World). For countries of the Third World even an increase of the emissions is planned: this is a result of the necessary "pent-up demand". In principle, compensatory measures need also to be considered in determining critical emission and acceptance rates in environmental media and ecosystems. This includes afforestation (to create sinks of CO2) or the exploitation of renewable resources for energy production instead of fossil fuels. The potential and costs of renewable resources in the substitution of fossil fuels are currently being estimated within the BMFT key research project "Renewable Resources".

The determination of these critical rates puts great demands on science, which certainly cannot be fulfilled in all cases. On the other hand, the work of the Enquete Commission illustrates that realizable scientific results can be achieved at least for some subsections.

Costs of exploitation of ecological and raw material resources

The current use of the environment as a supply of raw materials and receiving medium of harmful substances (which is incompatible with a lasting, sustainable development) is also a consequence of the fact that current prices and costs for demands on ecological resources do not reflect the true costs. Today, ecological resources such as air, water and soil can partly still be used free of charge as receiving media for harmful substances, although this exacts significant environmental harm and social cost (external cost). The production of goods and services as well as private consumption habits must not lead to an overstraining of the acceptance and regenerative abilities of the environment. Long-term orientated policy must leave room for the demand for resources of future generations and take into account new global challenges, especially the protection of global environment. The fundamental task of ecological and economic policy is to elucidate existing environmental shortages and overdemands using price and other indicators, and to include the demands on ecological resources as a cost component in the economy and budget via the internalization of the external costs.

This so-called internalization of external costs for the utilization of ecological resources has so far been achieved (if at all) mainly through legislative mechanisms (the establishment of limiting values) and not by the setting of prices. The latter would be more suitable however (when viewed from market economy aspects), because theoretically this is the only way that a cost-optimised allocation of resources can be achieved. The pros and cons of legislative and market economy mechanisms for environment protection have been studied thoroughly during recent years resulting in an attitude of compromise. But it also has been recommended that market economy mechanisms be applied more extensively than previously, mechanisms such as community charges, environmental taxes and charges based on usage. This leads to the problem of defining the amount of such charges and taxes in order to meet the environmental costs. That means, a monetary estimate of the costs of the damage caused by the different utilizations of the environment is necessary, as well as estimates for the cost of redevelopment measures. Although monetary evaluations of environmental damage are limited (for instance how should the extinction of species be evaluated financially), such estimates should provide some clues for establishing prices for the exploitation of ecological resources. Such measures should also increase public understanding for the amount of such charges and taxes.

The recording and monetary evaluation of environmental damage which is needed in order to internalize external costs is therefore a major task of research, and requires the cooperation of economists and scientists. The Federal Ministry of Environment has already established a key research area "Costs of Environmental Pollution - Benefits of Environment Protection" in order to accomplish this. Previous results were presented in September 1991 at an international symposium.

Realization of the concept of a sustainable development

Critical emission rates and acceptance capacities are at present greatly exceeded. The reduction of current emission rates to tolerable emission levels will require drastic cuts, especially for the industrial countries and their populations. Economic breakdowns and social hardship are herewith to be avoided. Internalization of the costs caused by utilization of the environment would lead to a significant rise in prices in many areas. Irrespective of the methods of realization (by legislative and/or market economy means), the internalization in many cases can not be achieved abruptly, because severe economic and social adaptation crises would be expected.

On the other hand, faced with the impending global environmental hazards, proceeding too slowly is irresponsible. Therefore the following research tasks in social, economic and political sciences are of prime importance:

- the development of chronologically staggered strategies and groups of mechanisms for the internalization of ecological costs from the viewpoint of a socially and economically sound organization. This means that social, economic and possibly unintended ecological impacts must always be analysed simultaneously in order to achieve optimal solutions. Moreover, faced with global environmental problems, strategies and groups of mechanisms must not be confined to a national scale and it is necessary to develop international strategies and to study their impacts on different groups of countries (industrial countries, countries of the Third World);

- the question needs to be settled, which structural changes are necessary in different social areas (e.g. transport, economy, consumption, recreational activities) and in the relationships between industrial and developing countries in order to solve the global environmental problems;

- moreover, it seems sensible to initiate national and international sociological studies on the perception of global changes, on environmental awareness and on environmental behaviour. It is also necessary to develop suitable measures for an environmental education so as to increase the population's acceptance of the measures used to control global environmental problems (which will cause a significant turning point).

4. The most important scientific "tools"

The most important scientific tools for global change research are mainly remote sensing, data bases, computer models and interdisciplinary cooperation.

Remote sensing

If changes in the Earth system are to be recognized and if simultaneously, anthropogenic influences are to be identified against the background of changes of natural origin, it is necessary to have the corresponding long-term data to hand. This is largely achieved using current methods of satellite-based remote sensing. Consequently remote sensing is increasingly used and is becoming more and more important. This is illustrated, for example by the substantial German participation in ERS-1 (Earth Remote Sensing Satellite), the first European satellite planned and used exclusively for remote sensing. Moreover, the Federal Republic of Germany is planning the ATMOS-program, the goal of which essentially is to record the chemical properties of the global atmosphere and subsequently to coordinate and analyze the data.

Ground-based, aircraft or satellite-borne measurements, as well as the employment of balloon platforms allow large-scale data sets to be gathered: these make it possible to reliably record changes in the Earth system. Remote sensing methods not only give insights into the relationships in the system, but are often the only method to determine globally important climatic and environmental parameters. This is true for example for tropospheric clouds, which are very important to the global energy and radiation balance and which can be only insufficiently recorded by conventional methods.

It is of great importance to provide the data to as wide a circle of users in different disciplines as possible. An especial aim should also be to integrate those disciplines which have so far used only little or even no remote sensing data (e.g. social and economic sciences).

Data acquisition / data management

The gathering and distribution of data on the Earth system is of special significance for global change research: it will only be possible to clarify the most important correlations between effects by the effective linkage of very different kinds of data. Faced with an ever increasing amount of data an efficient data management will become more and more important. Besides gathering contemporary data, it is also essential to analyze old, historic data. Only then will it sometimes be possible to establish the necessary long-term series of observations. However, this will raise special problems with respect to the quality and calibration of these data, problems which will be dealt with in special research projects.

The unification of data acquisition and data management should provide the greatest possible compatibility between the different data sets (harmonization).

One should be aiming already for a unification of the data gathering. This especially effects:

- data formats

- storage media

- the manner of processing / corrections, as well as

- standardization of measuring methods, measuring instruments and calibration of data.

A very early harmonization with already existing or planned data bases is indispensable during the establishment of data bases. The German Remote Sensing Data Center (Deutsches Fernerkundungsdatenzentrum, DFD) at the DLR in Oberpfaffenhofen is playing an increasingly important role in questions of reception, processing, archiving and the distribution of standard products from remote sensing. Its role will become even more important when the ERS-series and POEM program (Polar Platforms) are put into operation. Central archives for globally recorded data have already been established for the area of marine research at the JGOFS-secretariat in Kiel, for paleoclimatology in Hohenheim and for the vegetation index at the Free University (FU) Berlin. An information system for environmental data in the subject area "ecology" is to be established at the GSF. Precipitation data (Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, GPCC) are available at the German Meteorological Service at Offenbach, and a data base on run off data (Global Run Off Data Centre, GRDC) is available at the Federal Agency of Hydrology in Koblenz. At the European level, the information system CORINE (on a scale of 1:100 000) will play a dominant role in land use mapping and planning. The numerous national data bases should also be made available to a wider circle of users.

A decentralized solution to data storage will be preferable to central data bases, provided a smooth linkage and mutually unhindered access between the data bases is given. One should aim for the widest possible coordination of international partners in the implementation of the data centers, e.g. within the framework of IGBP or EOSDIS (for JGOFS already under discussion).

Computer models

Models of frequently mentioned complex processes of the Earth system such as the oceanic circulation in certain regions of the ocean are feasible only with the help of large computers. Data assimilation models are fundamental for the efficient use of measuring data. But models are also the basis of forecasts of future changes in the earth system (which are the center of global change research). Here the linkage and coupling of subsystems becomes increasingly important. In the scientific sector (e.g. in coupled models of the atmosphere, ocean and ice shields) this is still reconstructable and partly already realized. However, the linkage of sociological and economic concepts to scientific processes still requires extensive developmental work.

As already mentioned in detail, the parameters of all system components are to be acquired as completely as possible by measuring campaigns. This is a prerequisite for the widely coupled models mentioned above, and should have already been started. This does not mean that one should now try to derive a universal "supermodel" of the Earth system. But it is sensible however, to think about the corresponding modules in such a model and to define the necessary data (initial and boundary conditions). This is the only way to make sure that essential parameters are acquired in currently running or planned projects.

The Federal Republic of Germany has started to define the parameters necessary for climate diagnosis and climate modelling. This is being done within the framework of an inventory of all climatically relevant data available from national observational programs and international cooperation projects: the Federal Republic of Germany is carrying out (on a national scale) the resolutions of the Second World Climate Conference, which took place in November 1990 at Geneva.

Long-term observations and phases of intensive measurements

Reliable data series covering as long as possible time spans need to be available in order to securely discover environmental changes. Measurements of CO2 are an example.

Besides large-scale research institutes, federal agencies can be enlisted for these tasks as well as foreign research institutions, supported by international programs. The DFD of the DLR already participates in the development of a worldwide retrievable, internationally fed, remote sensing data network. Data assimilation is one of the prime tasks here.

Long-term observations need to be integrated in international programs in order to achieve a coordinated task sharing.

Intensive phases of measurement used for the study of the processes involved (in addition to long-term observations) provide important contributions to the research on global changes (e.g. for the clarification of material cycles, the understanding of physical, chemical and biological processes and the diagnosis of climatic changes).

Data obtained in such campaigns should be collected together in central data centres, as should be done for data from other disciplines relevant to global change research (e.g. air chemistry). Data from oceanographic expeditions already are being stored centrally within the framework of WOCE at the German Oceanographic Data Centre (Deutsches Ozeanographisches Datenzentrum, DOD) of the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (Bundesamt für Seeschiffahrt und Hydrographie, BSH) and at the data centre of the University of Hamburg. It is advisable that research groups should be obliged to publish the data obtained within a certain period of time and to make them available to a wide circle of users. This obligation should be stated when approval for the measuring campaign is granted.

The goal should be to provide the entire scientific community important information on as many parameters of the Earth system as possible. A prerequisite for this is a consistent processing of the raw data. This in turn should be subject to a stringent quality control in order to make sure that the derived data can be used as reliable quantities in further analyses. Moreover, the large amount of data expected requires a well reasoned conceptual framework for the gathering, management and distribution of the data.

This is particularly true for satellite-based remote sensing. Support concepts should not only secure the financing of the hardware (as often happened in previous missions), but should also include processing of the data obtained and their analysis for further use, as is planned for example for the ATMOS program. As satellite-based remote sensing normally requires great financial means, the coordination and partition of the tasks in an international framework will be important. Promising approaches do already exist within the framework of the European Space Agency (ESA). Attention should be paid to avoid duplications with other nations, particularly with respect to projects initiated mainly by individual nations. The same is true for problems of data management and data exchange between different partner nations.

Problems of interdisciplinary cooperation

Research on global change requires fundamentally new approaches which exceed the boundaries of single disciplines. This is an organizational problem as well as a problem of semantics. Scientists of different disciplines (who have hardly communicated with each other up to now and have developed their own, often highly specialized terminology), must be able to work together on system orientated research approaches. This affects cooperation between scientific and sociological research groups as well as cooperation between different scientific disciplines (for instance, between meteorology and biology). Interdisciplinary difficulties show up for example on different time scales and spatial resolutions when considering any given problem.

While atmospheric scientists concentrate on time scales of 10 - 100 years for example, when studying global climatic changes, such long periods are rather unusual for economists. On the other hand, the spatial resolution of climate models are so far too low to allow analysis of socio-economical consequences.

Interface problems of interdisciplinary research require understanding between the disciplines involved. The individual scientific disciplines are characterized by their parameters, operations, methods and also by the accuracy of their measurements. In interdisciplinary research these problems need special attention with respect to the interpretation and application of the research results.

5. Review of previous and planned support activities

Possible global changes caused by increasing concentrations of atmospheric trace substances were discussed by scientists during the seventies. The German Federal Government has taken up the research recommendations of the scientists and established a corresponding research program.

The Climate Research Programme of the BMFT (conceived as a German contribution to the World Climate Research Programme) was approved by the Federal Government in 1982. It concentrated mainly on problems of fundamental research in the subject areas of climate and atmosphere, following the scientific recommendations at that time. These research projects allowed the basic knowledge to be enlarged and the prerequisites for developing climate models to be ascertained. Important contributions led to an increased understanding of the role of anthropogenically generated trace substances within the global radiation and heat budget of the atmosphere.

In addition the Key Research Area "Physicochemical Processes of the Atmosphere" established in 1986 has (within the framework of atmospheric research) significantly contributed to a better understanding of the formation, transformation and spread of climatically relevant trace substances in the atmosphere. The research activities on this subject (which partly also includes impacts on the biosphere) have been mainly integrated in the EUREKA project EUROTRAC since 1988.

In 1989 the BMFT established its own Key Research Area "Greenhouse Effect" within the framework of the Climate Research Program in order to be able shortly to make predictions on future global climatic changes with regard to changed concentrations of climatically relevant trace materials. Research projects dealing with the problems of the stratospheric reduction of ozone are promoted by the BMFT within the framework of the "Ozone Research Program", established in 1988.

Ecosystem Research studies the conditions under which terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems (agricultural and forest ecosystems, woodland ecosystems, water landscapes, alpine ecosystems, tropical ecosystems, urban ecosystems) are stable, what impacts are to be expected as a result of their exploitation and anthropogenic environmental changes, how their cultivation can be made ecologically sound, which measures have to be taken for their redevelopment and lasting protection, and what social and economic consequences these will have. Further key projects of research on ecosystems are aimed at the protection and restoration of threatened biotopes (e.g. moorlands, heathlands) as well as at the protection of species diversity and of the soil with respect to different and partly competitive modes of exploitation, and changes in exploitation.

The program "Marine Research and Marine Technology" also has close connections with global change research. Research projects supported by the BMFT within the framework of this program are helping for example, to improve our understanding of the interactions between the oceans and the atmosphere, and to study bio-geochemical cycles relevant to global exchange processes and their variations. The key project "Polar Research" is also promoting projects relevant to global changes, for instance projects on interactions within the ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere system or paleoclimatic processes. Within the EUREKA-project EUROMAR technologies are being developed to install and run marine monitoring and information system.

The following table shows the extent of research support in 1990 on the subject matter "Global Change". It can be seen that the Federal Republic has provided about 364 million DM for the support of global change research in 1990. This sum does not include the institutional funds of the Max Planck Society (Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, MPG). Funds of the States (Länder) of the Federal Republic are included only for support measures carried out together with the Federal Government.

hier ausführliche Tabelle "Support of Global Change Research..." einfügen

The first column of the table shows the research areas: "ozone destruction", "climatic change", "sensitive terrestrial ecosystems", "sensitive ecosystems, coast, ocean, cryosphere" and "sustainable development". The rows show the different goals of the projects: data acquisition ("measuring"), understanding of ecosystem correlations ("understanding") and forecast of global changes ("prediction").

The significant difference in the funds of 230 million DM for 1989 accounted for in the report of the cabinet in November 1990 is due to an improved stock-taking as well as to an actual increase in funds in some sectors.

The BMFT will strengthen and broaden the support activities on "Global Change" in the future, for instance in the area of research on climatic impacts. A new key research area "Research on Impacts of Climatic Change" is presently being elaborated to this effect. It is particularly planned to study the impacts of climatic changes on natural ecosystems (land surfaces, oceans) in the framework of this key research area, as well as the socio-economic impacts on agriculture and forestry, on the economy in general, and on society. For the areas Sustainable Development and Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change studies on the state and needs of research are being carried out. The DFG is also planning to participate in the latter area.

Global change research is increasingly carried out using remote sensing programs. The amounts of data acquired are such that they cannot be analysed by conventional means. In particular, already existing data and data still to be acquired need to be put into a form which allows one to compare and work with them both mutually, and with terrestrial measurements. The development of models for data processing and data storage urgently requires coordination. This could be achieved if the DFD of the DLR was developed into a national data coordination agency.

Global change research will also rank highly in the new States (Länder) of the Federal Republic. Several new research institutes are planned there as part of the recent reorganisation of research, the emphasis of which will be on global change research. They will provide the following major contributions to this field:

- Institute for Atmospheric Physics (Institut für Atmosphärenphysik) at the University of Rostock (as a Blue List institutet, these are research institutes financed both by the Länder and the Federal goverment):

This institute will study experimentally the atmosphere between the surface of the Earth and an altitude of 100 km. Indirect methods (field station Juliusruh) as well as the direct method of rocket sounding (field station Zingst) will be used. The data acquired will be used for the computation of models. The institute is part of a regional research association within the Baltic Sea area.

- Institute for Research on the Baltic Sea (Institut für Ostseeforschung) at Rostock-Warnemünde (as a Blue List institute):

This institute will be responsible (within the framework of the regional research association) for the supraregional long-term project of monitoring the Baltic Sea within the region of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Focal points will be marine biology and chemistry and in particular environmental analysis and geology.

- Centre for Regional Remote Sensing (Zentrum für regionale Fernerkundung) in Neustrelitz (as an institute of the DLR):

This centre is mainly to provide remote sensing data for ecological problems, besides doing some atmospheric physics tasks.

- Institute for Research on Impacts of Climatic Change (Institut für Klimafolgenforschung) at Potsdam (as a Blue List institute):

This new institute will study the regional impacts of global climatic changes using meteorological and ecosystem modelling methods. It will concentrate on the hydrological cycle and the vegetation, besides its work on theory and methods. Economical and demographic developments will also be studied, on a long-term basis.

- Research Station for Polar Research (Forschungsstelle für Polarforschung) at Potsdam (as an organizational unit of the AWI):

The research station will mainly carry out periglacial and continental atmospheric research, and studies of warm-blooded animals. The focus will be on long-term programs concerning global change and polar environment protection.

- Institute for Tropospheric Research (Institut für Troposphärenforschung) at Leipzig (as a Blue List institute; ):

This institute will do research on the heavily overloaded troposphere, especially the atmospheric boundary layer. The transport of trace materials, their precipitation and processes of cloud formation will be studied using ground-based remote sensing methods.

- Environmental Research Center Leipzig-Halle (Umweltforschungszentrum, UFZ):

This National Research Institution will deal with the scientific fundamentals of environmental problems in highly burdened industrial conurbations. Complementary research will study human-ecological aspects.

- Center for Research on Agricultural Landscapes and Land Use (Zentrum für Agrarlandschafts- und Landnutzungsforschung, ZALF) in Müncheberg (as a Blue List institute):

This institute will do fundamental research on soils, erosion, physiology of plants, forest ecology and ecosystem research on landscapes with respect to the glacial landscapes of the northern regions of Germany. Application orientated research projects will deal with the problems of excessive mineral and organic fertilization and the compacting of soils.

A review summarising these institutes is given in the following table.

Name and Place Tasks Type Staff

Inst. for Atmospheric Sounding and BL 32

Physics at the Univ. modelling of the of

Rostock atmosphere up to 100 km

Inst. of Baltic Sea monitoring of the BL 142

Research, Warne- Baltic Sea, ecology

münde of the Baltic Sea

(layering of sediments,

material balance,

circulation models)

Center for Regional satellite ground part of 40,inc.

Remote Sensing, station, satellite GFE DLR 10 in

Neustrelitz sounding, hydrosphere projects

Inst. for Research regional climate models, BL 39

on Impacts of Clim. climatic impacts on hydro-

Change, Potsdam logy, vegetation and

socio-economy

Research Station for geological studies of part of 45, inc.

Polar Research, the periglacial, physics GFE AWI 11 short

Potsdam and chemistry of the term

polar atmosphere

Inst. for Tropospher. research on the over- BL 60

Research, Leipzig loaded troposphere by

remote sensing methods,

models

Inst. of Empirical environmental economy, BL 63

Economy, Halle amongst other things

Environm.Research fluxes of harmful GFE 355

Center, Leipzig/Halle materials, research

on waste dumping,

landscape ecol. res.

Center for Res. on soil and erosion, BL

Agricult. Landscapes hydrology, physio-

and Land Use, Münche- logy of plants, forest

berg ecology, socioeconomy,

models

Two further research institutions in the new States (Länder) of the Federal Republic will work in the agrarian sector:

- Institute for Agriculturally Relevant Climatic Research (Institut für agrarrelevante Klimaforschung) in Müncheberg

as a field station of the Federal Research Institute for Agriculture (Bundesforschungsanstalt für Landwirtschaft, FAL) at Braunschweig-Völkenrode. Its task is to clarify how much the current cultivation of the land contributes to the emission of climatically relevant trace gases and what consequences this will have on the agriculturally exploited ecosystems themselves, as well as on other ecosystems.

- Institute for Forest Ecology and Acquisition of Woodlands (Institut für Forstökologie und Walderfassung) at Eberswalde,

- Institute for Cultivation of Forest Plants (Institut für Forstpflanzenzüchtung) at Waldsieversdorf

as a field station of the Federal Research Institution of Forestry and Wood Industry (Bundesforschungsanstalt für Forst- und Holzwirtschaft, BFH).

Amongst global change research activities of the Federal Ministry of Education and Science (BMBW) should be mentioned:

- In 1990 the BMBW presented the report "Protection of the Earth's Atmosphere - A Challange for Education" (published as volume 4 of the reports of the Enquete Commission "Precautions for the Protection of the Earth's Atmosphere"), which includes recommendations for all educational sectors.

- Since August 1st 1991 the BMBW together with the Länder Hamburg, Niedersachsen and Schleswig-Holstein have supported a trial project on the elaboration of pedagogical models of teacher training on the subject matter "Earth's atmosphere".

6. Realization

Cooperation

An essential characteristic of global change research is its global approach. As global environmental changes are not limited within national or continental borders, their study must not be bound by political borders. Consequently, effective and lasting political and economic measures (needed in order to avoid or reduce human interferences with natural cycles) can only show their desired effects if they are obligatorily coordinated, realized and controlled on international scales.

Thus global change research urgently needs international coordination. This is allowed for in the research framework presented here. The following coordination levels should be noted:

Bilateral activities

In the early eighties, bilateral collaborations between the Federal Republic of Germany and other states had already initiated projects in subject areas which are today classified as global change research. At that time, the term "Gobal Change" was not yet coined and so these projects were generally still subsumed under the subject matter environmental research. Cooperative projects of German research institutions together with Brazil and Canada, which studied the oceanic circulation of the southern and northern Atlantic respectively, are examples of such bilateral collaborations amongst others. These projects (like a few others), are continuing today within global change research (the projects mentioned above are continued in the framework of WOCE). In the late eighties, Brazil and Canada still remained the most important cooperation partners, just as they were at the beginning of bilateral cooperations in the area of global change research. Bilateral collaboration has significantly increased recently: this applies both in the number of states participating in projects, and in the broader spectrum of themes now being worked on.

The bilateral and multilateral projects shown in the following table are of very different size and extent. They range from support of scientific communication and exchange of experience (e.g. by financing the stays of visiting scientists and journeys to cooperating research institutions) to the financing of joint projects. The table includes projects supported by the BMFT on the basis of so called basic agreements, concluded by the Federal Republic with the governments of the cooperating states, as well as projects financially supported by the special encouragement of the BMFT, and projects of the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation (BMZ).

hier Tabelle "Cooperation of the Federal Republic of Germany..." einfügen

International programs

Committees and mechanisms are normally already in existence at the level of large international programs, and can enable a program orientated, scientific coordination of the countries involved. There is no established committee however in the major programs for the higher coordination of the organizational sector (financing, logistics). The activities of the International Group of Funding Agencies (IGFA) are of increasing importance when seen against this background.

Germany should extend and intensify its already existing contributions within the framework of program coordination, and integrate them into the national concept.

One can differentiate between the individual coordination committees for the large programs as follows:

- World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO): here the coordination takes place in the Joint Scientific Committee and in the Committee on Climatic Changes and the Oceans (CCCO).

- The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has established the Coordination Committee on the Ozone Layer (CCOL), the task of which is to gather and to regularly evaluate recent scientific findings on the ozone problem and to coordinate ongoing and planned scientific activities. Member states, multinational organizations (e.g. EC, OECD), specialist organizations (like the WMO) as well as the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) and the chemical industry are represented in the CCOL. Here the results of the German Ozone Research Program will be introduced.

- International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP): here the international coordination is managed by the Scientific Advisor Council, in which the chairpersons of the national committees are to be found, amongst others. The coordination is also managed by the Scientific Committee, to which the heads of the individual core projects belong. Germany is represented in this position by the national IGBP secretariat and by the project office of the core program Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS).

- Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (HDGEC): here two independent developments have emerged since the meeting of the International Social Science Council (ISSC) in Mallorca in the autumn of last year. International coordination within the ISSC is achieved by the Standing Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change. On the other hand there are the endeavours of the International Federation of Institutes of Advanced Studies (IFIAS) of the United Nations University (UNU) and of UNESCO, who are also working on a program on Human Dimensions of Global Change. A firm international coordination structure has not yet emerged, however.

In the area of polar and marine research there are traditionally the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) and the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR), which also have the tasks of managing international coordination. Germany is active on both committees.

International long-term observation and service programs are needed (besides research programs) on the recognition of global changes. The Integrated Global Ocean Services System (IGOSS), commonly supported by the WMO and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO, and the IOC programs International Oceanographic Data and Information Exchange (IODE) and the Global Sea-Level Observing System (GLOSS) already support research programs such as WOCE, TOGA or JGOFS. The establishment of a Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) as part of the higher level Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) is planned by the IOC: this will provide the long-term observation of the oceans and coastal regions.

The Federal Ministry for Transport (BMV) has established (within the framework of the "World Climate Research Programme" and supported by means of the BMFT) the World Center for Precipitation Climatology in the German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD). The goal of the project is to find methods for providing precipitation information on a global scale. The center will be taken over by the DWD as a matter of routine at the end of the project, and will continue to gather and distribute global precipitation data.

The DWD also provides climatic data series for long timescales from its observational program: these could be used to demonstrate possible climatic changes in Germany.

The Global Run Off Data Center has been established at the Federal Agency for Hydrology. Here too the corresponding data are acquired and distributed globally.

Moreover, temperature measurements are carried out by merchant vessels, as contributions to WOCE. The data acquired are stored in the German Oceanographic Data Center (Deutsches Ozeanographisches Datenzentrum) at the Marine Environment Data Center (Meeresumwelt-Datenbank, MUDAB).

The following table shows the key scientific research areas of the international programs and the German participation in these key areas.

hier: Synoptic Table of German Participation in.International.." einfügen

Integration of developing countries into global change research efforts: System for Analysis, Research and Training (START)

The integration of the poorer countries into research as a basis for appropriate and efficient action strategies is of special significance, especially when seen against the background of worldwide problems of global changes and their impacts which particularly affect these poorer developing countries. The International Geosphere Biosphere Programme has presented a concept (START) in order to address this problem; it includes bilateral as well as multilateral (by means of a common fund) help for the establishment of laboratories, measuring stations or major computer centers in research centers which are to be founded by the developing countries.

Several projects have been ear-marked by the START Standing Committee to be integrated as measuring stations into a regional research network. These projects are already supported via the German Society for Technical Cooperation (Deutsch Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit GmbH, GTZ) by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation. They include the National Centers for Remote Sensing in Zimbabwe and India and the International Center for Mountainous Regions in Nepal. Besides Germany, several UN organizations also support the Center for Mountainous Regions.

The establishment of a regional research network will take a long time, although this will differ from region to region. Bilateral research projects, e.g. the program SHIFT (see chapter 3.4), are planned so as to achieve an early integration of the developing countries into the global change studies during this period.

List of Abbreviations

ATMOS

Atmospheric, Oceanic and Surface Exploration Satellite

BAHC

Biospheric Aspects of the Hydrological Cycle

EC

European Community

EPOCH

European Programme on Climatology and Natural Hazards

EUREKA

European Research Coordinating Agency

EUROMAR

European Programme on Marine Research and Technology

EUROTRAC

European Experiment on Transport and Transformation of Environmentally Relevant Trace Constituents in the Troposphere over Europe

GCTE

Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems

GEMS

Global Environmental Monitoring System

GEWEX

Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment

HDGEC

Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change

ICSU

International Council of Scientific Union

IFIAS

International Federation of Institutes for Advanced Study

IGAC

International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Program

IGBP

International Geosphere Biosphere Programme

IGFA

International Group of Funding Agencies

IOC

Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (of UNESCO)

lSSC

International Social Sciences Council

JGOFS

Joint Global Ocean Flux Study

LOICZ

Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone

MAB

Man and the Biosphere

MAST

Marine Science and Technology

PAGES

Past Global Changes

STEP

Science and Technology for Environmental Protection

TOGA

Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere Programme

UNESCO

United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization

UN

United Nations

UNU

United Nations University

UNEP

United Nations Environment Programme

WCRP

World Climate Research Programme

WMO

World Meteorological Organization

WOCE

World Ocean Circulation Experiment

Addresses

Federal Ministry for Research &

Technology; Department for Global

Change, Climate- and Atmospheric

Research

Heinemannstr. 2

D-5300 Bonn 2

Tel.: 02 28/59 34 95

Fax: 02 28 / 59 36 01


National IGBP Science Secretariat,

Institute for Meteorology

Dietrich-Schafer-Weg 6-10

D- 1000 13crlin 41

Tel.: 0 30/83 87 11 57/7 11 17

Fax: 0 30/83 87 11 60


Research Centre Julich GmbH,

Programme Group for Technology

Assessment

Postfach 1913

D-5170 Julich I

Tel.: 0 24 61 /61 52 04

Fax: 0 24 61 /61 24 96


Nuclear Research Centre at Karlsruhe

Department for Applied System

Analysis

Postfach 3640

D-7500 Karlsruhe

Tel.: 0 72 47/82 39 51

Fax: 0 72 47 / 82 48 06


German Aerospace Research

Establishment

Project Management for

Environmental System Research

Sudstr. 125

D-5300 Bonn 2

Tel.: 02 28/38 21-142

Fax: 02 28 / 38 21-229


Researeh Centre Julieh GmbH,

Projeet Management for Biology,

Energy and Eeology

Postfaeh 1913

D-5170 Julieh I

Tel.: 0246/6 10

Fax: 02 46 / 61 24 96


Radiation & Environmental Research

Establishment,

Projeet Management

Kuhbaehstr. 11

D-8000 Munehen 90

Tel.: 0 89/65 10 88 51

Fax: 0 89/65 10 88 44


National Global Change Secretariat

at the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research

Postfaeh 120161

D-2850 Bremerhaven

Tel.: 04 71/4 83 12 17

Fax: 04 71/4 83 11 49


EUROTRAC Science Secretariat

Fraunhofer Institute for Atmospheric Environmental Research
 Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19

D-8100 Garmisch-Partenkirchen

Tel.: 0 88 21/18 30

Fax: 0 88 21/7 35 73


International JGOFS Science

Secretariat

c/o Institute for Marine Rescarch

Universitat Kiel

Dusternbrooker Weg 20

D - 2300 Kiel 1

Tel.: 04 31 /5 97 40 19

Fax: 04 31 /5 97 56 58 76


National GEWEX Science Office

Postfach 1160

D-2054 Geesthacht-Tesperhude

Tel.: 0 41 52/87 18 33

Fax: 041 52/87 16 18


German MAB National Committee

c/o Federal Res. Inst. for Landscape

Ecology and Nature Protection

Konstantinstr. 110

D-5300 Bonn 2

Tel.: 02 28/84 91-0

Fax: 02 28/8 49 12 00


UNEP-HEM-Office

c/o GSF

Ingolstadter Landstr. 1

D - 8042 Neuherberg

Tel.: 0 89/31 87 33 25


International BAHC Science

Secretariat

c/o Institute f. Meteorology

FU Berlin

Dietrich-Schafer-Weg 6-10

D- 1000 Berlin 41

Tel.: 0 30/83 87 11 57/711 84

Fax: 0 30 / 83 87 1 1 60