Reproduced, with permission, from:
Tolba, M. K., O. A. El-Kholy, E. El-Hinnawi, M. W. Holdgate, D. F. McMichael, and R. E. Munn, eds. 1992. Ozone depletion. Chapter 2 in The world environment 1972-1992. New York: Chapman and Hall.
Main findings of the Report of the Technology and Economic Assessment Panel, (December, 1991).
Estimated phase-out progress:
- Total CFC production was cut by 40% between 1986 and 1991 with maximum reduction (70%) in the production of CFC114.
- Production of Halon 1211 and Halon 1301 peaked in 1988 and is now declining. Production of Halon 2402 has virtually ceased in OECD countries.
- Several manufacturers are moving faster than the most stringent regulations. By January 1992, halon and CFC recycling will be accepted world-wide. The first HFC-134a automobile airconditioners and domestic refrigerators will also be commercialized. Discharge testing of halon has virtually been eliminated in training and servicing equipment.
Changes in CFC global market:
- Total market has declined between 1986 and 1992 by 40%. Major declines were in propellants (58%), cleaning agents (41%). phenolic blowing agents (65%) and extruded polystyrene sheets (90%).
Technical feasibility of early phase-out:
- In developed countries it is technically feasible to phase-out all consumption of CFCs and halons by 1995-97; 1,1,1-trichloroethane by 1995 or 2000 at the latest and carbon tetrachloride by 1997. These dates are based on completion of toxicity tests on the transitional substances.
- The Halon Technical Options Committee did not consider a phase-out earlier than 1997. Estimates were made of halon banks to meet requirements into the next century.
- In developing countries, the same phase-out schedules are technically and economically feasible un mally applications. More time may be needed for some applications (5-8 years). Financial assistance and training will be needed.
Implications of a 1997 phase-out:
- The costs will be higher than a year 2000 phase-out. Half the extra cost will be in retrofitting vehicle air conditioners in the USA and Japan.
- The availability of some substitutes and alternatives for small but umportant uses (inhalant drugs. precision cleaning, drying hi-tech products) is uncertain.
- Overall ODP impact of transitional substances will be minimized if HCFCs with lowest ODP are selected. Technologies for replacing the controlled substances should be selected so as to minimize energy consumption as well as ozone depletion.
Technical and environmental uncertainty:
- The possibility that exemptions may be needed for a 1997 phase-out cannot be ruled out. There is no perfect substitute. Each one has difficult trade-offs in performance, ODP, GWP, energy efficiency and toxicity.
Developing countries concerns:
- Successful phase-out assumes the availability of technologies. technical support and training through channels and mechanisms supported by the Interim Multilateral Fund.
- There is concern that producers in developing countries might export excess controlled substances or obsolete equipment using them to other countries.
- Recovery, recycling and management of banks of controlled substances could face difficulties due to inadequate infrastructure and training.
- Some developing countries are already entering into technology cooperation projects for phasing out controlled substances (e.g. Mexico, China, Thailand, Brazil).