INTERNATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCE COUNCIL HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE WORK PROGRAM, 1991-1992 Table of Contents Preface 4 Executive Summary 4 I. Introduction 5 II. The Data Program 8 Working Group on Survey Research Data Working Group on Economic Data Working Group on Demographic Data Working Group on Remote Sensing Working Group on Social/Behavioral In-field Data Working Group on Data Information Systems and Technologies III. The Land Cover/Land Use Change Program 8 Joint IGBP-ISSC Working Group On Land Cover/Land Use Changes IV. The Program for Design and Development of Research 9 Working Group on Social Dimensions of Resource Use Working Group on Perception and Assessment of Global Environmental Conditions and Change Working Group on Impacts of Local, National, and International Social, Economic and Political Structures and Institutions Working Group on Energy Production and Consumption Working Group on Industrial Growth Working Group on Environmental Security and Sustainable Development V. The Role of ISSC's Standing Committee 10 INTERNATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCE COUNCIL HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE WORK PROGRAM, 1991-1992 Preface This Work Program was prepared by the International Social Science Council's (ISSC) Standing Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change in a series of meetings. The broad outlines of the program were defined during the committee's meeting in Madrid in April 1990. The program was developed in detail at a meeting in Ann Arbor, Michigan in October 1990. A draft of the work program was reviewed in November 1990 by the Scientific Symposium on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change that was held in Palma de Mallorca, Spain in conjunction with ISSC's Eighteenth General Assembly. At its meeting in Palma on 30 November 1990, the standing committee revised the work program in the light of this discussion and adopted it as a broad guide to ISSC's activities for the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Program (HDGECP) during 1991 and 1992 . The United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization and Spanish national and local governmental authorities provided support for the committee's meetings in Spain. The Ann Arbor meeting was made possible by a grant from the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). The Standing Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change and the International Social Science Council are deeply grateful for this assistance. Executive Summary This document sets forth the activities that the International Social Science Council (ISSC) will sponsor during 1991 and 1992 to promote research on the human dimensions of global environmental change. The Framework for Research on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change gives the broad orientation and states the aims of ISSC's work. To foster international and interdisciplinary coordination ISSC will assist member unions in their efforts to promote research on the human dimensions of global environmental change and will provide information on related national and international activities. ISSC itself will also establish working groups to promote standardization in measurement, comparability of research design, and integration of the full range of appropriate social and physical science disciplines in research. During 1991 and 1992, ISSC will sponsor three types of activities: data development; research on land cover and land use change; and research design and development. (1) Data Development: Although relevant data already exist for research on the human dimensions of global environmental change, these data have not been systematically inventoried, nor are they easily accessible. In addition, new data will be required to fill gaps in existing data and to cover issues and topics that have not been covered. Comparable measures for regional and global data must be devised. There are new technologies for obtaining and handling data. ISSC will sponsor working groups on all of these topics. (2) Research on Land Cover/Land Use Change. Change in land cover/land use is a crucially important issue in global change. Since physical, biological, and social systems interact in determining changes in land cover/land use, this topic must be studied jointly by natural and social scientists. ISSC in collaboration with the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme: A Study of Global Change (IGBP) will establish a working group that will develop a core project on land cover/land use change. (3) Research Design and Development. Beyond calling for studies of land use, the Framework for Research on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change identifies six other areas where research will be essential to understanding global change. These are: (a) the Social Dimensions of Resource Use; (b) Perception and Assessment of Global Environmental Conditions and Changes; (c) the Impacts of Local, National, and International Social, Economic, and Political Structures and Institutions; (d) Energy Production and Consumption; (e) Industrial Growth; and (f) Environmental Security and Sustainable Development. ISSC will establish working groups on each of these topics. I. Introduction This document sets forth the activities that the International Social Science Council (ISSC) will sponsor during 1991 and 1992 to promote research on the human dimensions of global environmental change. The Framework for Research on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change gives the broad orientation and states the aims of ISSC's work. Although most social science research on the human dimensions of global environmental change will be conducted by individual scholars and groups of scholars, this work will be dependent upon common identification of research problems, coordination of research across disciplines and nations and provision of the necessary research infrastructure. Various countries have now established or are in the process of establishing national programs to promote social science research on global change, and the majority of ISSC's member unions have established research committees focusing on this topic. However, there is a critical need for international and interdisciplinary coordination of this research. Acting in concert with its member unions and participating scholars, ISSC will further this work and give it direction through its Standing Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change. To foster international and interdisciplinary coordination ISSC will assist member unions in their efforts to promote research on the human dimensions of global environmental change and will provide information on related national and international activities. ISSC itself will also establish working groups to promote standardization in measurement, comparability of research design, and integration of the full range of appropriate social and physical science disciplines in research. During 1991 and 1992, ISSC will sponsor three types of activities: data development; research on land cover/land use change; and research design and development. (1) Data Development. Research on the human dimensions of global environmental change must be grounded in empirical observation. These data must be internationally comparable and available for long time periods. For some issues, data must be global in scope. Although relevant data already exist, these data have not been systematically inventoried, nor are they easily accessible. In addition, new data will be required to fill gaps in existing data and to cover issues and topics that have not been covered. Comparable measures for regional and global data must be devised. There are new technologies for obtaining and handling data. Geographic Information Systems provide a highly sophisticated means of arraying and analyzing data with spatial dimensions, and remote sensing offers a technique for gathering data that could be used more extensively by social scientists. Remote sensing may make it possible to gather data more efficiently than through traditional social science techniques or to measure phenomena that cannot be measured by traditional techniques. ISSC will sponsor working groups on all of these topics. (2) ÊResearch on Land Cover/Land Use Change. Change in land cover/land use is a crucially important issue in global environmental change. The uses to which land is put determine the character of the earth's albedo, its reflective properties. Deforestation produces greenhouse gases and reduces the biosphere's capacity to absorb emissions of carbon dioxide. Different types of agricultural practices and urban land uses produce varying amounts and types of greenhouse gas emissions. Understanding land cover/land use change is vital to understanding global environmental change. Since physical, biological, and social systems interact in determining changes in land cover/land use, this topic must be studied jointly by natural and social scientists. ISSC in collaboration with the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme: A Study of Global Change (IGBP) will establish a working group that will develop a core project on land cover/land use change. (3) ÊResearch Design and Development. Beyond calling for studies of land cover and land use, the Framework for Research on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change identifies six other areas where research will be essential to understanding global change. These are: (a) the Social Dimensions of Resource Use; (b) Perception and Assessment of Global Environmental Conditions and Changes; (c) the Impacts of Local, National, and International Social, Economic, and Political Structures and Institutions; (d) Energy Production and Consumption; (e) Industrial Growth; and (f) Environmental Security and Sustainable Development. There are traditions of work within the social sciences that are relevant to each of these topics. The research called for in the Framework for Research on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change should build on this work, but it must go beyond what has been done in emphasizing comparative, cross- national, and cross-disciplinary research. To promote research on these topics ISSC will establish working groups that will identify relevant existing work, analyze its strengths and limitations, and identify the priority tasks for next steps. The working groups will be composed of experts drawn from appropriate disciplines and various regions of the world. Each working group will hold at least one meeting during the 1991-1992 period and produce a report that will be considered at a Scientific Symposium that will be held in conjunction with the ISSC's Nineteenth General Assembly, which will be held in the fall of 1992. Members of the working groups will be encouraged to launch research projects by themselves or in collaboration with other scholars who may or may not be members of the working groups. The funding for this research would be sought from normal sources and through normal means. The foregoing is a broad outline of the work that the International Social Science Council will undertake during the period 1991-1992. A more detailed statement about the various activities follows. II. The Data Program ISSC accords high priority to issues relating to data. Several working groups will be established. The working groups that will be established and the tasks they will undertake are described below. 1. Working Group on Survey Research Data. Decisions to take actions that contribute to global environmental change and about how to respond to such change will in the main be taken by individuals acting on their own and collectively in private and public institutions. Human behavior depends on the values and information that people have received from external sources, their education, in interpersonal exchanges and via the media, on how they interpret it, and on what they decide to do about it. In order to understand relationships between the perception and assessment of environmental problems and human behavior patterns, social scientists must have appropriate data on knowledge, attitudes, perception, and behavior. Survey research of samples of general publics, elites, and other specialized groups has been widespread in Western countries and is being done with increasing frequency in other countries. These polls have been conducted by scholars, public bodies such as the Commission of the European Community, non-governmental organizations, industrial concerns, and private research institutes. Some of these data have been placed in archives such as those of the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research, the Roper Center, and members of the Committee of European Social Science Data Archives. Many of these data are relevant to issues of global environmental change. This working group will conduct an inventory of existing survey research data on knowledge, attitudes, and behavior relating to global environmental change. It will assess, in a general way, the quality of these data. It will identify gaps in the data. Baseline survey data relating to global environmental change are essential to the conduct of research on the human dimensions of global environmental change. Regular monitoring is also essential because detecting and measuring changes and assessing their significance will be important research tasks. The working group will identify the components of critical baseline data and assess the extent to which existing data provide adequate baselines for cross-national and global studies. It will determine what ideally should be done to establish regular monitoring of the understanding and knowledge, attitude and behavior concerning all facets of global environmental change. Finally, the working group will make recommendations to the Working Group on the Perception and Assessment of Global Environmental Conditions and Change. 2. Working Group on Economic Data. The quantity, quality, and coverage of economic data have increased enormously since the Second World War. National accounts are available for most countries, and their reliability is improving. Many other types of economic data are also increasingly available, for instance, data on trade and investment, employment by sector, and the performance of enterprises. These data are generally collected by national governments for administrative and policy purposes. They are then collated and disseminated by international governmental organizations. Such organizations as the agencies of the United Nations system and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development have large staffs that work on data. Until recently, very few of these data sets have been conceived for environmental purposes. Moreover, little thought has been given to determining how useful existing data are for the study of economic influences in global environmental change. The first task of this working group will be to conduct an inventory of existing national and international economic data and assess their relevance for research. The working group will also consider whether or not new types of economic data are needed. The argument is frequently made that existing systems of national accounts do not accurately reflect environmental damages or account for the environmental externalities of economic activities. Since governmental policy is often based on data derived from national accounts, it is argued that these data misdirect policy by underestimating environmental costs. Various efforts are currently underway to develop accounting systems that incorporate environmental externalities. The working group will review this work. Few data are available on the relationship between land prices and land use. This appears to be an important gap. The working group will investigate this issue and determine if there are other gaps in economic data. 3. Working Group on Demographic Data. There is an abundance of demographic data. Censuses have been conducted by national governments worldwide increasingly utilizing standard criteria and methodologies. These national tabulations have been collated and made available for global dissemination by the United Nations. National governments have also collected data on nativity and morbidity and the incidence of diseases and these have been brought together and published by the World Health Organization. The World Fertility Study collected data that are essential for understanding the dynamics of demographic changes. Few of these data, however, have been collected specifically to meet the research needs of understanding global environmental change. Most of them are geo- referenced according to administrative and political boundaries, not according to environmental criteria. The working group on demographic data will inventory the demographic data that are currently available. It will evaluate the adequacy of these data for research on global environmental change. It will recommend how currently available data could be made more useful for the study of global environmental change and consider what types of additional demographic data may be required. 4. Working Group on Remote Sensing. The introduction of new measurement technologies has had important consequences in the social sciences just as it has in other sciences. The introduction of the sample survey in the 1930s made it possible to see previously unmeasurable patterns in human behavior. Remote sensing could offer another new technology for measurement in the social sciences. Although it has certainly offered innovative research opportunities in other sciences, its use has not been widely explored in the social sciences. Remote sensing can be utilized to measure physical conditions that are the consequence of human activities, such as changes in land cover or industrial emissions. Remote sensing can also be used to measure physical conditions such as temperature and the concentration of biologically harmful compounds in the atmosphere and water that affect human beings. In addition, remote sensing could be used to measure such social or human phenomena as urbanization and population density, migration, trade, and present and past settlement patterns. Other social and human phenomena may also be susceptible to measurement by remote sensing. This working group will explore how the social sciences can exploit the research potentials of remote sensing. Because it will need to consider both the types of data that are useful for studying the human dimensions of global environmental change and the capabilities of remote sensing to provide these data, it should be jointly comprised of a variety of social scientists on the one hand and natural scientists who are familiar with the technical capabilities and potentialities of remote sensing on the other. 5. Working Group on Social/Behavioral In-field Data. In addition to utilizing data gained from administrative sources, surveys, and remote sensing, research on the human dimensions of global environmental change must be grounded on experimental and quasi-experimental in- field, or in situ, observations that highlight individual and collective human actions affecting environmental conditions and human responses to environmental changes. In recent years several of the social sciences have developed improved techniques for studying human behavior outside of restricted laboratory conditions. These developments hold the promise that new methods could be developed that would be applicable under in-field conditions and prove of sufficient reliability for useful conclusions to be drawn. The working group on in-field data for research on the human dimensions of global environmental change will investigate how such methods can be adapted for the acquisition of real-time referenced data that is comparable cross nationally and can be used in multi- national analyses. Such data are important in their own right as a means to explore the human dimensions of global environmental change in areas not accessible through other means of data acquisition and for use in validating data gained through surveys and remote sensing. 6. Working Group on Data Information Systems and Technologies. Because the study of the human dimensions of global environmental change requires analyzing vast amounts of data covering different topics and derived from different sources, accessibility and appropriate use of these data present a formidable challenge. As is apparent, there is already an almost overwhelming quantity of data relevant to the study of global environmental change. More data are needed and will rapidly become available. Much data has already been put in data archives. New facilities for archiving and disseminating data such as the Global Resource Information Database (GRID) and the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) are being developed. Means of transmitting data are changing rapidly in ways that could greatly facilitate the access of individual scholars to data. This working group will consider issues relating to the accessibility of data relevant to the study of the human dimensions of global environmental change and ISSC's role with respect to this issue. Given the immense resources that are required to obtain, collate, and disseminate data, it is clear that ISSC itself could not become involved in these tasks. As the only global association comprised of international social science associations, ISSC, however, is in a unique position to draw on the resources of the social science community and the international social science associations for advice. This working group will work closely with GRID, CIESIN, and others. Since the natural sciences face similar problems, and since studying the human dimensions of global change will require the utilization of natural science data, this working group will also work closely with the IGBP Data and Information Systems program. This working group will also consider issues relating to the handling of data. There are statistical techniques for relating data with different temporal and spatial scales, but existing techniques need to be extended for use in cross national research on the human dimensions of global environmental change. The working group will explore these issues. Geographic Information Systems have become an extremely useful instrument for integrating diverse types of data so that they can be analyzed in combination. Because Geographic Information Systems have not been utilized widely in the social sciences outside of the discipline of geography, this working group will explore how Geographic Information Systems can be used in the study of the human dimensions of global environmental change. III. The Land Cover/Land Use Change Program Natural scientists and social scientists have both identified changes in land cover and land use as an important topic for understanding global change. Because this is a topic where social science and natural science concerns intersect and interact, it must be studied jointly by social and natural scientists. The Second Scientific Advisory Council of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme recommended that the International Council of Scientific Unions and the International Social Science Council establish a working group to define a IGBP-ISSC core project on land cover/land use changes. Several social sciences have a rich tradition of research on the human transformation of the earth's land surface. Studies of land clearing, urbanization, and changing agricultural practices provide a rich background to our understanding of changing patterns of land use over time. Many of these analyses have been case studies, but there have also been studies that formulate generalizations and create models of broad applicability. Some of this work has been conducted under the auspices of international bodies such as ICSU's Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE). SCOPE's project sought to synthesize existing knowledge and to point the directions for future work. 7. Joint IGBP-ISSC Working Group On Land Cover/Land Use Change. The joint IGBP-ISSC working group will formulate a core project on land cover/land use changes. Elaborating the agendas established by several national and international bodies, the core project will consider the natural and anthropogenic factors that contribute to land cover/land use change and how these factors interact. It will have as a primary objective the merging of the field-based, case study approach with global modeling efforts. The core project that the working group will formulate must: (a) identify the key land cover/land use changes that require attention; (b) examine the macro and micro causes of and responses to these changes; and (c) determine under what circumstances common clusters of these causes and responses tend to appear. Such efforts should be facilitated through the use of comparative case studies following standard protocols designed so as to promote aggregation and disaggregation. Coastal zones should be included in the core project. This working group will build on the work that has already been done and also take advantage of work that is being done by national and international bodies investigating global change. Work is sufficiently advanced that it should be possible to formulate the core project in 1991 and launch research in 1992. IV. The Program for Design and Development of Research ISSC's Framework for Research on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change identified six important research topics beyond land use change. Each of these topics is described in a broad and general way in the Framework. The next stage is to expand and refine the definitions of the six research topics. This can only be done on the basis of systematic international and interdisciplinary literature reviews. Once systematic literature reviews have been conducted, then gaps in existing knowledge can be identified and feasible research tasks and strategies developed. These will be the tasks of these six working groups. 8. Working Group on Social Dimensions of Resource Use. The social dimensions of resource use involves the dynamic interactions between population and resources and constraints on these. Modeling has been an important part of the analytic tradition of both population dynamics and resource production and consumption, and global models combine population and resource dynamics. Because of the importance of determining the range of possible long-term conditions, effort should be devoted to exploring how global modeling of population and resource dynamics could be improved. Simultaneously, process studies of limited numbers of variables must be conducted on smaller scales. This working group will explore these and related issues. 9. Working Group on Perception and Assessment of Global Environmental Conditions and Change. The activities of the Working Group on Survey Research Data will be crucial to this working group. An inventory of existing opinion data and the identification of gaps in the data both by geographical region and by topic is essential as a basis for the activities of this working group. This working group's mandate, however, extends beyond determining existing opinions and monitoring changes in these opinions. It is to identify research needs for understanding how opinion about global environmental conditions and change is formed, how it changes, and how it is transformed into human motives, attitudes, and behavior. This involves: (a) gaining understanding of how human values, perceptions, mental models, motives, attitudes and behavior affect the formation of opinion; (b) gaining understanding of the roles played in these models by information about environmental change reported in the media and by interpersonal exchanges; and (c) exploring what consequences are likely to flow from collective and individual values, opinion, attitudes, and motives, as well as changes in these. Research in this area will involve both experimental and non-experimental work. It will rely on recent developments in cognitive science pertaining to the study of how human experience and behavior contribute to the development of mental models of a person's life space and how such mental modelling re-affects a person's experience and behavior. To facilitate the exploration of the inter-relationships among these issues, the working group will include individuals from a number of disciplines. Because of the need to coordinate research on these issues with the establishment of priorities for baseline data, several members of this working group should also be members of the Working Group on Survey Research Data. 10. Working Group on Impacts of Local, National, and International Social, Economic, and Political Structures and Institutions. The key task of this group is to discover how the separate and combined effects of social, economic, and political structures at various levels can be analyzed. The literature is rich with disciplinary studies within nations or localities, but there are few studies that integrate different disciplinary approaches and different scales of analysis. Yet it is widely known that actions in one sphere can exacerbate or negate actions taken in another. The same thing happens with different levels. Existing literature will provide a strong foundation for this working group's activities. The working group should use this in its search for more holistic approaches. 11. Working Group on Energy Production and Consumption. Energy is vital to modern life. Historically the demand for energy has increased with population growth and until recently with economic growth. Energy production currently contributes about 57 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. Understanding the dynamics of energy production and consumption is vital to understanding the dynamics of global environmental change. There are many models of energy production and consumption at varying scales. These models need to be reviewed. Consideration should be given to their strengths and limitations and to how they could be improved. 12. Working Group on Industrial Growth. Industrial production excluding energy (but including the production and consumption of chloroflourocarbons) accounts for approximately 20 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. Beyond contributing greenhouse gases, industrial production also has consequences for global environmental change in many other ways. Although the study of economic growth is a well established field and much is already known about industrial growth, little is known about the factors that influence the interaction between industrial growth and global environmental change. Considering how this topic can be explored will be the charge of this working group. 13. Working Group on Environmental Security and Sustainable Development. The consequences of environmental change for human life throughout the world have not been adequately projected nor are the consequences of global environmental changes for security among states well understood. Norms designed to shape the behavior of individuals and states with respect to global environmental change are just being formed. Sustainable development has been proclaimed as a broad goal of humankind, but the detailed content of this goal and the means of achieving it need additional exploration. All of these issues must be explored. Considering how they can be explored will be the task of this working group. V. The Role of ISSC's Standing Committee Under this work plan, most of the activities will be the responsibilities of the several working groups that will be established. The role of ISSC's Standing Committee will be relatively modest. ISSC's Standing Committee will: (a) appoint the members of the working groups; (b) monitor, coordinate, and review the activities of the working groups and supervise the official publication of their results; (c) revise and update the 1991-1992 Work Program to take into account evaluations of ongoing activities and the evolution of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Program; (d) prepare the Scientific Symposium that will be held in conjunction with ISSC's Nineteenth General Assembly in 1992; and (e) prepare the 1993-1994 Work Program.