POPULATION PRESSURE, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND LAND DEGRADATION IN RWANDA: AN AGENDA FOR COLLABORATIVE TRAINING, RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS RWANDA SOCIETY-ENVIRONMENT PROJECT WORKING PAPER, 1 OCTOBER 1993 by David J. Campbell, Jennifer M. Olson and Len Berry COPYRIGHT 1994,M.S.U BOARD OF TRUSTEES Department of Geography and the Center for Advanced Study of International Development Michigan State University 315 Natural Science Building East Lansing, MI 48824-1115 tel: 517/355-4649 fax: 517/336-1671 © 1993, M.S.U. Board of Trustees All rights reserved. For information contact the Geography Department at the address given below. October 1993 Copies of this Working Paper as well as other papers in the series are available from: Geography Department Michigan State University 315 Natural Science Building East Lansing, Michigan 48824-1115 U.S.A. Telephone: 517-355-4649 FAX: 517-336-1671 MSU is an affirmative-action, equal-opportunity institution CONTENTS Preface i I. Executive Summary 1 II. Rwanda as a Case Study 2 III. Program of Work 3 IV. The Data Base 6 V. Outputs 7 VI. Pilot Study Personnel and Collaborating Institutions 8 VII. Bibliography 10 PREFACE The Rwanda Society-Environment Project has its origins in the work of the MSU Center For Advanced Study of International Development (CASID) Environment and Development Project. This project was begun in 1989 and was funded initially by the MSU Foundation. The Project has developed into a collaborative effort involving Michigan State University, the United Nations Environment Programme, Global Resources Information Database, and in Rwanda the Ministries of Agriculture and Environment and Tourism, and the National University. The objective of the Project is to assist in the improvement of analysis and policy making for natural resources management (NRM) in Africa through a pilot study in Rwanda to identify optimum and minimum data sets for NRM. The Working Papers are intended to serve as a forum for the research team to publish the initial research findings for discussion purposes. Working Paper, 1 in this series presents an overview of the project's objectives and activities. Funding for the initiation of the research of the project at Michigan State University (MSU) was provided by MSU and the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). The International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Ottawa provided seed money for the Rwandan team. UNEP-GRID has donated the costs of its activities on the project. The support of these institutions is gratefully acknowledged. The individual authors remain responsible for the contents of the Working Papers which should not be interpreted as necessarily reflecting the views of the Government of Rwanda, UNEP, IDRC, CIESIN or MSU. I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The objective of this project is to address natural resources management (NRM) issues in Rwanda through a collaborative program of training, research and analysis. The focus is on applied research with policy implications which examines the interdependent relationship between population pressure, agricultural productivity and land degradation in Rwanda.Ê The study addresses the particular circumstances of Rwanda and will also provide a conceptual and methodological basis for similar work elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The project is being conducted through collaborative training and research among the participants: the Department of Geography and the Center for Advanced Study of International Development, Michigan State University (MSU-CASID); Global Resources Information Database, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP-GRID); the Government of Rwanda: Ministry of Environment and Tourism (MINETO) and Ministry of Agriculture, Division des Statistiques Agricoles (DSA); and the National University of Rwanda (UNR). This is a pilot study which approaches NRM issues within a scientific framework which uses a variety of analytical methods, including survey data analysis and GIS, to address specific NRM issues and to help define optimum and minimum data needs for understanding people-environment interactions which underlie NRM. It will provide a basis for better understanding and solving of environmental problems, and build a strong scientific and analytical foundation for NRM policy formation. To achieve this a number of sub-objectives exists: × to understand how to meld and analyze, often disparate human and physical data sets in a common analytical framework, in ways which facilitate policy analysis (this will include analysis of specific NRM issues); × to compile pathfinder, prototype data sets to assist with analysis and modelling of issues related to NRM; × to provide training in analysis of NRM issues at UNR, including instruction in GIS and other research methods; × to advise on the creation of an NRM analysis center at the Geography Department UNR which will include a GIS facility; × to create a collaborative network of institutions in developed and developing countries to facilitate applied research with implications for NRM policy. The results of the Rwanda study will illustrate the interaction between economic, political, social and environmental factors in development and will help generate clear policy choices for the Government of Rwanda and donors. Rwanda is an excellent location for such an analysis because of links with ongoing projects, the large body of existing data and literature and the urgency of new policy initiatives. II. RWANDA AS A CASE STUDY Rwanda is seen as a classic example of a country experiencing extreme population pressure; historically it has had the highest national population density in Africa and the population is confined to a very limited land base. Although small, Rwanda is environmentally diverse and provides examples of responses to population pressure from humid highland to semi-arid regions. As such, the problems in Rwanda of increasing population, declining agricultural productivity and land degradation are a precursor to similar scenarios occurring elsewhere on the continent, for example in the Kenyan Highlands and in Madagascar. Until recently, the Rwandan agricultural system was capable of providing food security through a variety of responses to increasing population density. Among the responses of the rural population are the establishment of continuous cropping systems, the adoption of labor-intensive techniques, agroforestry, a search for non-farm employment and short- and long-distance migration in search of additional land to cultivate or urban sources of income. Despite these activities, food crop production in Rwanda has levelled off in recent years and may now be declining. Slight climatic changes leave many rural households vulnerable to food deficits. Hunger is already a chronic problem in some areas of the country. Many see the immediate cause of this diminished productivity as soil degradation due to increasing pressure placed upon the land by the rapidly growing population. The linkage, however, between increasing population densities, declining yields and land degradation is not simple but involves the interaction of societal, institutional and environmental factors over both time and space. A broad perspective is therefore needed to understand the reasons behind population growth rates at the household level and to analyze the dynamic interactions between demographic processes and resource management. Seen in the context of a framework which examines the complex interactions, Rwanda's population, food production and land degradation problems suggest that the following conditions may be critical to our understanding: × the diversity of ecological, cultural and economic conditions creates an mosaic of individual farm level situations; × land degradation has varied in nature and intensity over time and space but it has been addressed through uniform national government strategies; × within the national trend of declining food productivity, severe localized shortages exist; . the pressure appears to have led to declines in productivity and increasing land degradation; × land degradation and declining productivity may be outcomes of increasing competition between the three pillars of Rwandan agriculture: crop production, animal raising and tree production. The Rwandan case illustrates that environmental sustainability and social and economic development can no longer be analyzed as separate phenomena but that the melding of these objectives is critical. The key to this uniting of goals is an approach which clarifies the interaction between social and environmental processes in order to conduct effective research to inform policy. The case study is building a strong practical and scientific foundation for the determination of the data and the analytical tools required for effective applied NRM analysis in SSA. To be effective this approach needs to be tested in and focused on African data conditions. This argues for a pilot study in a country where adequate and complementary data exist on socio-economic and physical conditions. To our knowledge, the most comprehensive longitudinal sub-national socio-economic and physical data set in SSA is in Rwanda. The approach adopted for this study will be evaluated for its applicability elsewhere. Rwanda will therefore serve as a pilot for the study of NRM issues in other African countries. III. PROGRAM OF WORK The study will: × inform policy choices concerning issues such as population pressure, agricultural productivity, deforestation and land degradation; × investigate how to effectively use physical and socio-economic data sets interactively, in a common analytical structure to address NRM issues and assess what comprise the optimum and minimum data to most efficiently address them; × clarify the causes of declining food production in the context of historical trends and contemporary patterns of population distribution and population dynamics, agricultural productivity and land degradation in Rwanda; × specifically, the project will include both Rwanda- wide issues and more locally, forest-edge outcomes of changing people-environment interaction. A. Rwanda-wide activities 1. Carrying capacity: identify critical variables and processes which limit existing carrying capacity; suggest non-farm activities which can raise the carrying capacity beyond the limits of subsistence agriculture; 2. Environmental stress: determine geographical distribution of environmental stress where interventions are required in the non-farm sector to alleviate dependence on the subsistence sector; 3. Spatial variation in population dynamics: assess differential population growth (natural increase, migration) related to environmental capacity. Identify areas of in- migration to determine the economic activities that attract migrants; do these activities have investment potential elsewhere? 4. Land degradation: determine processes leading to declining land productivity and identify alternative on- and off-farm management strategies. B. Forest-edge activities 1. Socio-economic research: Conduct socio-economic research to understand current use of the forest by the population along the forest edge; assess the potential for non-extractive use of forest resources to improve the local economy; identify viable economic alternatives to reduce pressure on the forest; 2. Air photo interpretation: Interpretation of air photo imagery to identify change in land use, in particular deforestation and afforestation along the forest edge; 3. Policy evaluation: Examine current projects to evaluate their impact upon forest conservation and development of alternative economic opportunities to inform development strategies for forest-edge communities; 4. Private sector initiatives: Identify economic opportunities at the national level which would create multiplier effects within the local economy. For example, how can national policy in the tourist sector stimulate small-scale local private sector activities? Effective NRM demands an understanding of how the interaction between local, on-farm conditions and their broader policy context affect the sustainability of the resource base. Global and national economic and political policies influence the farmer, the farmer's decision on where the hoe breaks the ground and what to plant. These farm-level activities in turn modify the resource base, regulate farm production and ultimately determine the results of the policies established at the national or global levels. The conceptual framework adopted by the project is designed to analyze such interactive NRM issues at a number of different scales and over time (Campbell and Olson 1991). The initial research focus will be at the prefecture level in order to gain a proficient and detailed understanding of the major themes. The DSA data permit analysis of household decisions which are statistically valid at the prefecture scale and at the national level. More detailed studies will be conducted in Gikongoro. This prefecture is the focus of existing study by team members and it provides examples of extreme population pressures. Specifically, the study will be nested as described below. × Appropriate national-scale data (e.g. censuses and available AVHRR imagery) will allow us to distinguish broad patterns of landuse change at the national level. The results will provide the broad context for the more detailed, prefecture-level studies. × Census data and the available physical data (e.g. soil surveys and LANDSAT imagery will permit more detailed analysis at the prefecture level. The DSA farm survey data on issues such as land agroforestry, crop productivity, migration and non-farm income will also contribute to this stage of the study. The detailed prefecture studies will have immediate relevance to government planning. × These analyses will identify localities within Gikongoro where critical NRM issues exist. These will be the focus more detailed longitudinal studies which will combine airphoto interpretation and fieldwork. It will compile the data in a local-level GIS in order to assess what sort of NRM questions such a GIS could help address. Working at the prefecture and sub-prefecture scales will permit a focus on research questions of interest to policy- makers and allow an assessment of the utility of combinations of various socio-economic data and environmental data for NRM analysis. The studies at each level will be discreet but the findings will be compared to assess research results, the utility of different variables at different scales of analysis and analytical methods. These comparisons will contribute to the development of a methodology to provide a critical policy oriented, analysis of the interdependence between population growth, food production and land degradation. The Pilot Study includes a number of related activities: 1. NRM Issues: A series of Working Papers are being prepared which analyze NRM issues and clarify any need for additional information. The analyses select among the full range of available existing information on Rwanda to address key environmental problem areas. The starting point for the issue analyses is a documentation of broad patterns of land use change which represent the outcome of societal/environmental interactions. Among the specific issues which are being examined are: × land degradation; × changes in land use and land cover; × environmental stress/carrying capacity; × population pressure, migration and population redistribution over time. 2. Information Needs Assessment: Analysis of the interaction between societal and natural processes is identifying critical components and relationships in the interaction and guide future data needs for both systems. The project is experimenting with the data to determine the minimum data sets needed to effectively analyze the problems. It is identifying critical variables for an effective social, production systems and physical resources database. 3. Training: An important component of the project is the training of members of the Rwandan team in GIS and in the application of research to policy issues. Funding support for the Rwandan team is currently being provided by IDRC, Ottawa and UNEP-GRID is contributing its staff time for the GIS training activities in Rwanda. 4. Policy Formulation: Policy Workshops with invitees from government agencies and donors will integrate project findings and discuss implications for application to Rwanda and other countries. A prototype model will be developed and used experimentally in other countries to help define an approach to environmental policy planning for SSA. UNEP-GRID will coordinate this effort. 5. Evaluation: Representatives of the collaborating institutions and of donor agencies will participate in regular workshops to monitor the progress of the project in meeting its objectives. IV. THE DATA BASE The collaborative project is to exploring the unique data sets available in Rwanda through research and analysis of specific NRM issues, to define the optimum and minimum data required for effective NRM policy in Rwanda. The data sets are being experimented with at different scales and in different combinations to assess priorities for NRM. The findings, in terms of data needs and approaches to data management and analysis, will inform NRM strategies elsewhere in SSA. The data sets include: × Socio-Economic Data: The Division de Statistiques Agricoles (DSA) of the Rwanda Ministry of Agriculture has conducted a sample survey of 1019 rural households in 70 of 143 communes in the country's 11 prefectures since 1984. These continuous surveys provide a time-series of information on agricultural production and socio-economic conditions. These surveys have been interspersed by a number of one-time specialized surveys of specific issues including non-farm employment and migration (1988) and agroforestry (1991) (Table 1). The data are very detailed and are statistically valid at the level of the prefecture and agro-ecological zone. The data are maintained in digital form and each household can be identified by commune and by agro-ecological zone for geo-referencing purposes to enable spatial association with remotely-sensed and other environmental data. The results of the 1948, 1978 and 1990 censuses are being analyzed at the level of the commune. These data include information on demography, migration, economic activity and educational levels. × Remotely-Sensed Physical Data: Two longitudinal sources of remotely sensed physical data are available for Rwanda, satellite imagery and aerial photography. Images from Landsat (1975, 1986) and aerial photography from 1959, 1974, 1978 and 1990 are available. There are difficulties with the use Table 1 Chronology of Agricultural Household Survey Data Collection in Rwanda .c1.Table 1 Chronology of Agricultural Household Survey Data Collection in Rwanda ; Data Type 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Land use X X X X X X X X X X Agricultural production X X X X X X X X X X Demograph.attributes X X X X Livestock ownership X X X X Land tenure X X X Land degradation X X Off-farm employmnt. X X X X Agro-forestry X Wood/fuel use X Migration X X X Population/ fertility X Fertilizer use X Income and expenditure X Human nutrition X X of Landsat images in terms of cloud cover and time discrepancies in paired images. × The soil map project "Carte Pedologique" data provide valuable information on soil capability at a detailed spatial resolution. Topographic maps based on a 1975 aerial survey are available at the scale of 1:50,000. Some climatic data are available from the 1920s and since 1962 they have been collected in 80 stations throughout the country. × The digitized data sets are summarized in Table 2. × Documentary Data: Census data (1948, 1970 and 1978), rainfall records, government policy documents, including the recently prepared Environmental Action Plan, and the products of research at UNR, ISAR (Institut Scientifique Agricole du Rwanda), MSU and elsewhere are available. V. OUTPUTS The Pilot Study will generate a number of products including: × a series of Working Papers which analyze critical issues. These will be analyzed and written within a common conceptual framework; × a methodology designed to facilitate analysis of NRM issues for the formulation of public policy in SSA. The research methods will inform understanding of how to meld and analyze often disparate human and physical data sets in a common analytical framework; × identification of the minimum and optimum data required to produce appropriate data sets to understand the processes of interaction between society and the natural resource base; × determination of future data needs in physical, human and economic systems to address questions of importance to NRM analysis and policy; × evaluation of policy issues related to NRM that can be addressed by this methodology; × establishment of a national database linking natural and societal data for Rwanda; × a prototype collaborative network of institutions in developed and developing countries to facilitate NRM research and policy-making. Table 2 Digitized Maps.c1.Table 2 Digitized Maps; TOPIC SOURCE SCALE QUALITY Political Boundaries RŽp. du Rwanda, Carte Administrative et Routire, 1985 (?), MIRENAMICA 1:250,000 good for analytical and description purposes at the national, prefecture and commune scales Elevation Atlas du Rwanda, 1981, Prioul and Sirven 1:2,000,000 Adequate for descriptive purposes at national scale only Rivers RŽp. du Rwanda, Carte Administrative et Routire, 1985 (?), MIRENAMICA 1:250,000 good for analytical and description purposes at the national, prefecture and commune scales Roads RŽp. du Rwanda, Carte Administrative et Routire, 1985 (?), MIRENAMICA 1:250,000 good for analytical and description purposes at the national, prefecture and commune scales National Parks RŽp. du Rwanda, Carte Administrative et Routire, 1985 (?), MIRENAMICA 1:250,000 good for analytical and description purposes at the national, prefecture and commune scales Soil Capability Carte Pedologique du Rwanda, 1992. MINAGRI and Cooperation Technique Belge 1:250,000 very good for analytical purposes at national, prefecture and commune scales Agro-Climatic Zones Carte Pedologique du Rwanda, 1992. MINAGRI and Cooperation Technique Belge 1:250,000 very good for analytical purposes at national, prefecture and commune scales Average annual rainfall from 1929-1988 MINITRAP, 1992. Bulletin Climatologique AnnŽe 1991. RŽp. du Rwanda, Dir. de l'AŽronotique, Div. de la MetŽorologie. 1:3,000,000 best available, adequate for analytical and descriptive purposes at national and prefecture scales VI. PILOT STUDY PERSONNEL AND COLLABORATING INSTITUTIONS The Project represents collaboration between Michigan State University, UNEP-GRID and, in Rwanda, the Ministry of Agriculture (Division of Agricultural Statistics), the Ministry of Environment and Tourism and the National University of Rwanda. Funding for the initial activity of the project has been provided from a number of sources including: MSU, IDRC, UNEP and CIESIN. A combination of the people-environment systems analysis skills of the Geography Department and the Center for Advanced Studies of International Development (CASID) at Michigan State University, the site-specific knowledge of Rwanda experts, and the spatial analytical skills of the GRID-Nairobi team and MSU faculty will permit enhanced problem evaluation and policy formulation. A. MSU Society-Environment Project The MSU team of the project includes David J. Campbell, Principal Investigator Jennifer M. Olson, Field Coordinator and Research Analyst Daniel G. Brown, GIS and Remote Sensing Analyst Gichana Manyara, Research Assistant Senior Project Consultant Len Berry, Florida Atlantic University Technical Support R. James Bingen, Resource Development, Policy Analyst Tom W. Carroll, CASID, Research Associate Dick Groop, Geography, Research Associate Dave Lusch, Remote Sensing Analyst Brendan Mullan, Sociology, Research Associate Charles Rader, Geography, U. Wisconsin at River Falls, Research Associate B. UNEP-GRID - United Nations Environment Programme, Global Resources Information Database GRID-Nairobi is the regional GRID center in Africa. It is located at UNEP headquarters on the United Nations Gigiri facility just outside of Nairobi. It holds several hundred continental datasets for Africa, and has been involved in application project work and establishing national databases and GIS/IP capabilities in more than a dozen countries and several sub-regional intergovernmental agencies. UNEP will be involved in data analysis and in the defining of policy recommendations with particular reference to data structures for collecting and managing environmental and human data sets. It will also assist in the training of UNR and MINETO personnel in GIS technology using DSA and Rwanda satellite data. IDRC has invited UNR/MINETO to submit a proposal for funding of this training. Harvey Croze, Director GRID-PAC Noberto Fernandez, Project Manager Mick Wilson, GIS Technical Advisor C. Rwandan Team In Rwanda, collaboration between the Ministry of Agriculture (Division des Statistiques Agricoles), the Ministry of Environment and Tourism (MINETO) and the National University of Rwanda provides local capacity in data collection, analysis and policy formulation. MINETO is charged with the responsibility of preparing and implementing the Rwandan Environmental Action Plan and is currently promoting the establishment of GIS capabilities in the Ministry. DSA has been responsible for the collection and analysis of the longitudinal socio-economic data under a joint Government of Rwanda-USAID project in which MSU has played a major advisory, training and analytical role. UNR is a center of instruction and analysis related to NRM in Rwanda. The activities of the Rwandan Team are currently being funded by IDRC, Ottawa. Ministry of Environment and Tourism Ernest Rukangira, Director, Environment Division Ministry of Agriculture, DSA - Division des Statistiques Agricoles Anastase Murekezi, Director Theobald Kampayana, Analyst UNR, National University of Rwanda Professors Laurien Uwizeyimana and FrŽdŽric Gatera, Geography Department Muhawenimana Aloys, Vice-Dean, Faculty of Agronomy Professor Nkundabashaka Augustin, Department of Social Sciences VII. BIBLIOGRAPHY Cambrezy, Luc. 1984. Le Surpeuplement en Question: Organisation Spatiale et Ecologie des Migrations au Rwanda. Paris: ORSTOM. Campbell, David J. and Jennifer M. Olson. 1991. "Framework for environment and development: the Kite." CASID Occasional Paper, 10. CASID, MSU. Campbell, David J. and Jennifer M. Olson. 1992. "Flying the Kite in Kajiado District, Kenya." Centennial Review, XXXV,1:295-314. Clay, Daniel, C. 1992. "Fighting an uphill battle: demographic pressure, the structure of landholding and land degradation in Rwanda." mimeo. Clay, Daniel C. and R.J. Magnani. 1987. "The human ecology of farming systems:Ê Toward understanding agricultural development in Rwanda." Research in Rural Sociology and Development, 3:141-167. Clay, Daniel C. and Jean Kayatsinga and Theobald Kampayana. 1990. "L'emploi en dehors du menage au Rwanda." DSA Document du Travail, DSA, MINAGRI, Rwanda. Delepierre, G. 1985. "Evolution de la production vivrire et les besoins d'intensification."Ê In Conte Rendu du Premier Seminar National sur la Fertilisation des Sols au Rwanda, Kigali, du 17 au 20 Juin 1985.Ê Ministre de l'Agriculture, de l'Elevage, et des Forts: 56-86. Kigali, Rwanda: RŽp. Rwandaise. Gapyisi, E. 1980. "Note sur le problme dŽmographique au Rwanda." Bulletin Agricole du Rwanda, 14:118-121. Gatera, FrŽdŽric. 1980. "Accroissement dŽmographique et dŽboisement au Rwanda." Bulletin Agricole du Rwanda, 13:28-30. Gourou, Pierre. 1953. La DensitŽ de la Population au Ruanda-Urundi:Ê Esquisse d'une Etude GŽographique, MŽm. 8, XXI-6. Brussels: Institut Royal Colonial Belge. Lemarchand, RŽnŽ. 1970. Rwanda and Burundi.Ê London: Pall Mall Press. Olson, Jennifer M. 1990.Ê "The impact of changing socio-economic factors on migration patterns in Rwanda."Ê MA Thesis, MSU. Olson, Jennifer M., Daniel C. Clay and Jean Kayatsinga. 1990. "Migration permanente de la population rurale au Rwanda." DSA Document du Travail, DSA, MINAGRI, Rwanda. Uwizeyimana, Laurien. 1989. Croissance DŽmographique et Production Agricole au Rwanda. Louvain-la-Neuve, CIDEP. 62 pp. Uwizeyimana, Laurien. 1990. PŽriodicitŽ des Crises Alimentaires au Rwanda: Essai d'InterprŽtation, Department of Geography, National University of Rwanda. 98 pp. World Resources Institute. 1992. Report on WRI Mission to Rwanda: Planning an Environmental Information Program for the Ministry of Environment and Tourism by Jake Brunner and Dan Tunstall.